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A Study for ESA Advanced Concepts Team
Contract No: 17682/03/NL/EC To ESTEC
Final Report
LBST Consortium
January 2005
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Contractors
Volker Blandow, Patrick Schmidt, Werner Weindorf, Martin Zerta, Werner Zittel
L-B-Systemtechnik GmbH
Ottobrunn / Germany
www.lbst.de
Marco C Bernasconi
MCB Consultants
Dietikon / Switzerland
Patrick Q Collins
Space Future Consulting
Northampton / UK
www.spacefuture.com
Thomas Nordmann, Thomas Vontobel
TNC Consulting AG
Erlenbach / Switzerland
www.tnc.ch
Joëlle Guillet
Université de Neuchâtel
Neuchâtel / Switzerland
www.unine.ch
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C
ONTENTS OVERVIEW
Contents overview...............................................................................................................i
Contents.............................................................................................................................ii
Acronyms and abbreviations..............................................................................................vii
0 Summary..................................................................................................................0-1
1 General...................................................................................................................1-19
2 Solar technology.....................................................................................................2-31
3 Space system architectures.....................................................................................3-85
4 Potentials and systems aspects............................................................................4-119
5 Comparison of base load scenarios (WP1)...........................................................5-143
6 Comparison of non-base load scenarios (WP2)....................................................6-181
7 Launch..................................................................................................................7-199
8 System combination (WP3)..................................................................................8-211
9 Energy payback times (WP4)................................................................................9-271
10 Reliability and risk discussion.............................................................................10-353
11 Study conclusions...............................................................................................11-384
12 Literature............................................................................................................12-398
Report Annex
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C
ONTENTS
Contents overview...............................................................................................................i
Contents.............................................................................................................................ii
Acronyms and abbreviations..............................................................................................vii
0 Summary..................................................................................................................0-1
1 General...................................................................................................................1-19
1.1 Introduction..................................................................................................1-19
1.2 Driving forces...............................................................................................1-21
1.3 Approach and methodology.........................................................................1-25
1.4 Basic definitions and assumptions................................................................1-26
1.5 Data validity and certainty............................................................................1-28
1.6 Study scope / scenario design.......................................................................1-28
2 Solar technology.....................................................................................................2-31
2.1 Photovoltaics (PV)........................................................................................2-31
2.1.1
Technologies..................................................................................2-32
2.1.2
System design................................................................................2-47
2.1.3
Concentrating photovoltaic systems..............................................2-49
2.1.4
Economics.....................................................................................2-50
2.2 Solar thermal (SOT) power plants.................................................................2-64
2.2.1
Technologies..................................................................................2-64
2.2.2
Selected Technologies...................................................................2-72
2.2.3
Learning curves..............................................................................2-82
3 Space system architectures.....................................................................................3-85
3.1 Previous studies and concepts......................................................................3-85
3.1.1
Early work......................................................................................3-85
3.1.2
Recent and current activities.........................................................3-91
3.2 Selected reference concepts..........................................................................3-92
3.2.1
MEO Sun Tower as reference.........................................................3-93
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3.2.2
Solar Disk as reference...................................................................3-96
3.2.3
Assumptions for power transmission via microwave.....................3-98
3.3 Flexible operation of solar power satellites and rectennae.........................3-100
3.3.1
De-coupled satellite and rectenna operation...............................3-102
3.3.2
Shifting power delivery between multiple rectennae...................3-109
3.3.3
De-coupled rectenna and satellite operating schedules...............3-111
3.4 Space-based contribution to solar power scenario.....................................3-112
3.4.1
Development of low-cost launch system.....................................3-113
3.4.2
Development of space-based solar power pilot plant..................3-114
3.4.3
Microwave power transmission system (MPTS) R&D...................3-116
3.4.4
Critical path to space-based solar power supply..........................3-117
4 Potentials and systems aspects............................................................................4-119
4.1 Geographical scope....................................................................................4-119
4.2 Solar potentials...........................................................................................4-119
4.3 European grid.............................................................................................4-120
4.3.1
Siting assumptions.......................................................................4-122
4.3.2
Grid limitations............................................................................4-124
4.3.3
Power transmission.....................................................................4-124
4.3.4
Power demand.............................................................................4-126
4.4 Energy storage............................................................................................4-132
4.4.1
Energy storage systems...............................................................4-132
4.4.2
Selected concepts........................................................................4-134
4.5 Land use.....................................................................................................4-138
4.6 Decommissioning and recycling.................................................................4-138
4.6.1
Terrestrial solar power systems...................................................4-138
4.6.2
Space solar power systems..........................................................4-141
5 Comparison of base load scenarios (WP1)...........................................................5-143
5.1 Terrestrial concepts.....................................................................................5-144
5.1.1
Selected concepts........................................................................5-144
5.1.2
Scenario data...............................................................................5-150
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5.1.3
Costs............................................................................................5-156
5.2 Space concepts...........................................................................................5-162
5.2.1
Selected concepts........................................................................5-162
5.2.2
Scenario refence systems.............................................................5-166
5.2.3
Costs............................................................................................5-168
5.3 Cost comparison.........................................................................................5-173
5.3.1
Concepts......................................................................................5-173
5.3.2
Costs............................................................................................5-175
6 Comparison of non-base load scenarios (WP2)....................................................6-181
6.1 Terrestrial concepts.....................................................................................6-182
6.1.1
Selected concept..........................................................................6-182
6.1.2
Costs............................................................................................6-185
6.2 Space concepts...........................................................................................6-191
6.2.1
Selected concept..........................................................................6-191
6.3 Cost comparison.........................................................................................6-193
7 Launch..................................................................................................................7-199
7.1 Basic assumptions......................................................................................7-199
7.2 Cost targets................................................................................................7-200
7.3 Derivation of learning curve.......................................................................7-201
7.3.1
Method of calculation..................................................................7-201
7.3.2
Results.........................................................................................7-205
8 System combination (WP3)..................................................................................8-211
8.1 Space and terrestrial synergies from the terrestrial perspective.................8-211
8.1.1
Synergies in the production of space and terrestrial solar cells...8-211
8.1.2
Substitution of terrestrial energy storage needs..........................8-214
8.1.3
Conclusion from terrestrial perspective........................................8-220
8.2 Space and terrestrial synergies from the space perspective........................8-221
8.2.1
Space and terrestrial solar cell technology...................................8-222
8.2.2
Combined terrestrial solar power plants and rectennae..............8-222
8.2.3
Combined terrestrial and space-based solar power: base load
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scenarios for North African installations......................................8-226
8.2.4
Combined space-based solar power systems with terrestrial storage
for non-base load SPS scenarios..................................................8-228
8.2.5
Other potential synergies with SPS..............................................8-235
8.2.6
Conclusions and recommendations from space perspective........8-240
8.3 Further synergies........................................................................................8-241
8.3.1
European renewable electricity mix (REG-MIX)...........................8-242
8.3.2
Hydrogen option (H
2
-OPTION).....................................................8-254
8.3.3
Further SPS synergies...................................................................8-265
8.4 Conclusion..................................................................................................8-269
9 Energy payback times (WP4)................................................................................9-271
9.1 Space-based solar power systems..............................................................9-272
9.1.1
History of SPS analysis.................................................................9-272
9.1.2
Space option plants.....................................................................9-278
9.1.3
Operations, maintenance & decommissioning............................9-289
9.1.4
Payback ratios & times................................................................9-290
9.1.5
Conclusions SPS...........................................................................9-290
9.1.6
Non-base load scenario: LCA of PV plants...................................9-291
9.2 Terrestrial solar power systems..................................................................9-291
9.2.1
Approach and methodology........................................................9-291
9.2.2
History and sensitivity of results..................................................9-292
9.2.3
EU electricity mix.........................................................................9-293
9.2.4
Basic materials.............................................................................9-295
9.2.5
Base load scenario: Life-cycle analysis of SOT power plants........9-295
9.2.6
Non-base load scenario: Live-cycle analysis of PV plants.............9-306
9.3 Comparison of space and terrestrial power plants.....................................9-323
9.4 Discussion of net energy balance during the phase of installation.............9-327
9.4.1
Theory of energy balance during growth period..........................9-327
9.4.2
Energy payback and scenario calculations...................................9-330
9.4.3
Conclusions from net energy balance considerations..................9-342
9.5 Heat balance considerations.......................................................................9-342
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9.5.1
Space solar power systems..........................................................9-342
9.5.2
Photovoltaic and solar thermal power plants..............................9-346
10 Reliability and risk discussion.............................................................................10-353
10.1 Reliability..................................................................................................10-354
10.2 Risks.........................................................................................................10-358
10.2.1 Safety.........................................................................................10-359
10.2.2 Environment and health.............................................................10-360
10.2.3 Social.........................................................................................10-368
10.2.4 Technological............................................................................10-370
10.2.5 Economic...................................................................................10-374
10.2.6 National and international legislation.......................................10-375
10.2.7 Military and sabotage................................................................10-377
10.3 Comparison of system characteristics.......................................................10-382
11 Study conclusions...............................................................................................11-384
12 Literature............................................................................................................12-398
Report Annex
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A
CRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
a
Anno, Year
AC
Alternating Current
AIT&E
Assembly, Integration, Testing and Evaluation
AM 1.5
Air Mass 1.5 (full atmosphere)
AOCS 
Attitude & Orbit Control System
AWG
American Wire Gauge
bEUR
billion Euros
BOP
Balance Of Plant (see BOS)
BOS
Balance Of System (see BOP)
C&DH
Command & Data Handling
CCGT
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine power plant
CDEP
Concept Development and Evaluation Program
CFRP
Carbon-Fibre Reinforced Plastics
CGH
2
Compressed Gas Hydrogen
CHP
Combined Heat and Power
CIGS
CuIn
(1-x)
Ga
(x)
Se
2
(solar cell technology)
CNES
(France) Centre National d'Études Spatiales
COPUOS
(UN) Committee on the Peaceful Utilization of Outer Space
CR
Central Receiver Solar Power Plant
CRES
Chemically-Rigidized Expandable Structures
CVD
Chemical Vapor Deposition
DC
Direct Current
DIN
Deutsches Institut für Normung (German Institute for
Standardization)
DNA
De(s)oxyribonucleic Acid
DoE
(US) Department of Energy
e.g.
exempli gratia (Latin: "for example")
EC
European Commission
EEX
European Energy Exchange
EFG
Edge-defined Film Growth
EGS
Electronic Grade Silicon
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EJ
Exa-Joule = 10
18
Joule
EMC
Electromagnetic Compatibility
EMF
Electromagnetic Fields
EOL
End Of Life
ESA
European Space Agency
ESTEC
(ESA) European Space science & TEchnology Center
ETLO
Earth to Low Orbit
EU
European Union
EVA
Ethylene Vinyl Acetate
FAO
(UN) Food & Agriculture Organization
FC
Fuel Cell
FIRST
(ESA) Far InfraRed Space Telescope
FMEA
Failure Mode & Effects Analysis
GEO
Geosynchronous Earth Orbit
GHG
Greenhouse Gas(es)
GNP
Gross National Product
GW
e
Gigawatts Electrical
GWh
Gigawatt-hour
H
2
Hydrogen
H
2
O
Water
HLLV
Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle
HVAC
High Voltage Alternating Current
HVDC
High Voltage Direct Current
i.e.
id est (Latin: "that is")
ICE
Internal Combustion Engine
IMT
(University of Neuchâtel) Institute of Microtechnology
ISIS
(NASA) Inflatable Sunshield In Space
JSC
(NASA) Lyndon B Johnson Space Center
kW
e
Kilowatts Electrical
kWh
Kilowatt-hour
LBST
Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik
LEC
Levelized Electricity Costs
LEO
Low Earth Orbit
Lf
Learning factor
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