19
and those of the Middle-East and North Africa fell by 16%. 
This paper takes some steps towards understanding the determinants of cross-country variation
in both the levels and growth of exports.  There are several main findings.  First, geography creates
substantial cross-country variation in the ease of access to foreign markets, and this is an important
determinant of countries’ export performance.  For example, once country size factors are controlled
for, Sub-Saharan Africa has poor export performance, about one quarter of which is attributable to its
poor foreign market access.  Furthermore, the growth of foreign market access varied widely across
regions during the periods we studied.  This accounted for some of the poor performance of regions
such as Sub-Saharan Africa, not neighboured by countries with fast growing import demand.
Second, export performance also depends on internal geography, which is measured in this
paper by the proportion of the population close to the coast or navigable rivers.  Looking at Sub-
Saharan Africa again, a further one-quarter of its poor export performance is accounted for by this
variable.
Finally, export performance also depends on many other domestic supply side factors.  This
paper takes a small step towards analysis of these by looking at the role of institutional quality in
determining exports.  This, it turns out, accounts for a further one-quarter of Sub-Saharan Africa’s low
export levels.  Perhaps the main contribution of this paper is to show to measure and control for the
external and internal geographic factors that shape performance.  Our hope is that once these are
successfully controlled for then research will be better able to identify domestic factors (some of them
subject to policy control) that also determine export performance. 
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20
Table 1:  Bilateral Trade Equation Estimation (Country, Partner Dummies)
ln(X
ij
)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Obs
9981
9981
9981
9981
9981
9981
9981
Period
1970/73
1974/77
1978/81
1982/85
1986/90
1990/94
1994/97
ln(dist
ij
)
-0.831
-0.866
-0.882
-0.883
-0.853
-0.866
-0.866
0.072
0.062
0.059
0.061
0.05
0.05
0.046
bord
ij
0.532
0.494
0.483
0.449
0.528
0.607
0.688
0.179
0.157
0.154
0.16
0.146
0.151
0.152
Country dummies
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
Partner dummies
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
Estimation
WLS
WLS
WLS
WLS
WLS
WLS
WLS
F(
@
)
96.56
106.83
124.23
128.43
172
198.71
212.87
Prob > F
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
R-squared
0.863
0.85
0.852
0.844
0.897
0.906
0.898
Root MSE
0.879
0.89
0.891
0.954
0.761
0.7
0.723
Notes:  Huber-White Heteroscedasticity robust standard errors in parentheses.  ln(X
ij
) is log bilateral exports from
country i to partner j plus one; ln(dist
ij
) is bilateral distance between countries i and jbord
ij
is a dummy for
whether the two countries share a common border.  All specifications include exporting country and importing
partner fixed effects.  To allow for measurement error in bilateral trade flows that is correlated with the volume of
trade, observations are weighted by the product of country and partner GDP.
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21
Table 2:  Regional Sources of Export Growth, 1970/73-1994/97,  Percentage Rates of
Growth
Region
Period
Exports, V
Foreign
Market
Access, F
Supplier
Capacity,
s
Benchmark
Periods 1-7 (70/73-94/97)
326.3%
106.5%
106.5%
Periods 1-4 (70/73-82/85)      104.4%
42.9%
42.9%
Periods 4-7 (82/85-94/97)     108.5%
44.5%
44.5%
North America
Periods 1-7 (70/73-94/97)
288.99%
166.07%
110.86%
Periods 1-4 (70/73-82/85)       92.74%
59.42%
54.00%
Periods 4-7 (82/85-94/97)     101.82%
66.90%
36.92%
Latin America
Periods 1-7 (70/73-94/97)
193.32%
110.82%
48.11%
Periods 1-4 (70/73-82/85)       90.17%
40.39%
43.45%
Periods 4-7 (82/85-94/97)       54.24%
50.17%
3.25%
Western Europe
Periods 1-7 (70/73-94/97)
269.37%
94.29%
96.82%
Periods 1-4 (70/73-82/85)       75.05%
33.02%
34.12%
Periods 4-7 (82/85-94/97)     111.01%
46.06%
46.75%
Eastern Europe
Periods 1-7 (70/73-94/97)
187.43%
94.84%
39.62%
Periods 1-4 (70/73-82/85)      44.03%
33.95%
10.95%
Periods 4-7 (82/85-94/97)      99.56%
45.45%
25.84%
Sub-Saharan Africa
Periods 1-7 (70/73-94/97)
70.38%
86.44%
-7.24%
Periods 1-4 (70/73-82/85)      54.18%
34.71%
10.80%
Periods 4-7 (82/85-94/97)      10.50%
38.40%
-16.28%
N Africa and M East
Periods 1-7 (70/73-94/97)
189.77%
102.82%
41.20%
Periods 1-4 (70/73-82/85)     245.48%
48.38%
135.71%
Periods 4-7 (82/85-94/97)     -16.13%
36.69%
-40.10%
SE Asia
Periods 1-7 (70/73-94/97)
826.17%
146.35%
238.04%
Periods 1-4 (70/73-82/85)     233.67%
47.88%
119.01%
Periods 4-7 (82/85-94/97)     177.57%
66.59%
54.35%
Other Asia
Periods 1-7 (70/73-94/97)
371.95%
117.80%
119.31%
Periods 1-4 (70/73-82/85)      76.45%
45.74%
21.01%
Periods 4-7 (82/85-94/97)     167.48%
49.44%
81.23%
Oceania
Periods 1-7 (70/73-94/97)
166.82%
104.30%
29.86%
Periods 1-4 (70/73-82/85)       48.35%
37.34%
7.89%
Periods 4-7 (82/85-94/97)        79.85%
48.75%
20.36%
Notes:  Regional variables are the sum of those for countries within a region. See Appendix A for the countries
included in each region.
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22
Table 3a:  Percentage Growth Contributions of Partner Regions to the Growth of Foreign Market Access of Each Exporting Region
Periods 1-7 (1970/73-1994/7)
FMA       North     
America
Latin   
America
Western 
Europe
Eastern 
Europe
Sub   
Saharan 
Africa
MENA 
South  
East Asia
Other 
Asia 
Oceania
North America
166.07%
141.42%
3.22%
9.53%
0.29%
-0.43%
1.30%
9.82%
0.33%
0.59%
Latin America
110.82%
59.11%
19.32%
13.99%
0.42%
-0.86%
2.18%
14.93%
0.55%
1.19%
Western Europe
94.29%
15.49%
1.45%
61.91%
2.01%
-0.53%
2.90%
10.15%
0.50%
0.41%
Eastern Europe
94.84%
14.38%
1.44%
60.67%
2.99%
-0.57%
3.66%
11.21%
0.60%
0.45%
Sub-Saharan Africa 86.44%
27.24%
4.57%
23.79%
0.75%
-2.44%
6.00%
23.84%
1.36%
1.34%
N Africa and M East 102.82%
20.36%
2.35%
33.04%
1.08%
-1.08%
23.91%
20.67%
1.65%
0.83%
South-East Asia
146.35%
19.10%
2.18%
13.04%
0.46%
-0.72%
3.40%
104.67%
1.88%
2.34%
Other Asia
117.80%
21.29%
2.56%
19.43%
0.71%
-1.02%
7.67%
58.39%
7.10%
1.67%
Oceania
104.30%
29.99%
5.13%
13.18%
0.44%
-1.02%
3.22%
46.60%
1.26%
5.49%
Notes:  a region’s Foreign Market Access (FMA) is the sum of the values of FMA for all countries within that region. Regional FMA growth is
decomposed into the percentage contributions of each partner region using equations (12) and (13). The exporting region is reported in the rows of
the table and the importing partner in the columns.
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23
Table 3b:  Percentage Growth Contributions of Partner Regions to the Growth of Foreign Market Access of Each Exporting Region
Periods 1-4 (1970/73-1994/7)
FMA       North  
America
Latin  
America
Western 
Europe
Eastern 
Europe
Sub   
Saharan 
Africa
MENA
South  
East Asia
Other 
Asia
Oceania
North America
59.42%
51.56%
0.35%
2.36%
-0.11%
-0.22%
1.84%
3.22%
0.25%
0.18%
Latin America
40.39%
27.89%
1.42%
3.17%
-0.17%
-0.48%
3.07%
4.72%
0.41%
0.36%
Western Europe
33.02%
7.42%
0.01%
18.07%
-0.27%
-0.17%
4.20%
3.24%
0.40%
0.12%
Eastern Europe
33.95%
6.81%
-0.00%
18.28%
-0.35%
-0.17%
5.22%
3.57%
0.48%
0.13%
Sub-Saharan Africa
34.71%
12.55%
-0.06%
6.20%
-0.25%
-1.03%
8.58%
7.23%
1.08%
0.41%
N Africa and M East
48.38%
9.50%
-0.03%
10.32%
-0.24%
-0.32%
21.09%
6.45%
1.37%
0.25%
South-East Asia
47.88%
8.54%
-0.12%
2.88%
-0.19%
-0.49%
4.82%
30.18%
1.39%
0.86%
Other Asia
45.74%
9.62%
-0.12%
4.81%
-0.25%
-0.59%
10.73%
16.86%
4.13%
0.55%
Oceania
37.34%
13.10%
-0.24%
2.32%
-0.22%
-0.81%
4.51%
15.30%
0.95%
2.43%
Notes:  a region’s Foreign Market Access (FMA) is the sum of the values of FMA for all countries within that region. Regional FMA growth is
decomposed into the percentage contributions of each partner region using equations (12) and (13). The exporting region is reported in the rows of
the table and the importing partner in the columns.
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24
Table 3c:  Percentage Growth Contributions of Partner Regions to the Growth of Foreign Market Access of Each Exporting Region
Periods 4-7 (1982/85-1994/97)
FMA       North  
America
Latin  
America
Western 
Europe
Eastern 
Europe
Sub   
Saharan 
Africa
MENA
South  -
East Asia
Other
Asia
Oceania
North America
66.90%
56.37%
1.81%
4.50%
0.25%
-0.13%
-0.34%
4.14%
0.05%
0.26%
Latin America
50.17%
22.23%
12.75%
7.71%
0.42%
-0.27%
-0.64%
7.27%
0.10%
0.59%
Western Europe
46.06%
6.07%
1.08%
32.96%
1.71%
-0.27%
-0.98%
5.19%
0.08%
0.22%
Eastern Europe
45.45%
5.65%
1.08%
31.65%
2.50%
-0.30%
-1.16%
5.71%
0.09%
0.24%
Sub-Saharan Africa
38.40%
10.90%
3.44%
13.06%
0.75%
-1.05%
-1.91%
12.33%
0.21%
0.69%
N Africa and M East
36.69%
7.32%
1.60%
15.31%
0.89%
-0.51%
1.91%
9.59%
0.19%
0.39%
South-East Asia
66.59%
7.14%
1.56%
6.87%
0.43%
-0.16%
-0.96%
50.37%
0.33%
1.00%
Other Asia
49.44%
8.01%
1.84%
10.03%
0.66%
-0.29%
-2.10%
28.50%
2.04%
0.77%
Oceania
48.75%
12.30%
3.91%
7.91%
0.48%
-0.15%
-0.94%
22.79%
0.23%
2.23%
Notes:  a region’s Foreign Market Access (FMA) is the sum of the values of FMA for all countries within that region. Regional FMA growth is
decomposed into the percentage contributions of each partner region using equations (12) and (13). The exporting region is reported in the rows of
the table and the importing partner in the columns.
25
Table 4:  Bilateral Trade Equation Estimation and Within-Region Trade Costs 
(Country, Partner Dummies)
ln(X
ij
)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Obs
9981
9981
9981
9981
9981
9981
9981
Period
1970/73
1974/77
1978/81
1982/85
1986/89
1990/93
1994/97
ln(dist
ij
)
-0.669
-0.69
-0.71
-0.779
-0.704
-0.688
-0.74
0.089
0.077
0.076
0.081
0.071
0.075
0.086
bord
ij
0.778
0.659
0.578
0.526
0.488
0.416
0.401
0.145
0.124
0.119
0.12
0.112
0.113
0.118
Within N America
-0.467
-0.277
-0.205
-0.333
-0.019
0.417
0.543
0.289
0.271
0.281
0.278
0.273
0.327
0.335
Within L America
-0.531
-0.278
-0.168
-0.013
0.313
0.626
0.58
0.233
0.202
0.201
0.209
0.191
0.201
0.24
Within W Europe
0.565
0.642
0.732
0.657
0.811
0.876
0.802
0.161
0.14
0.135
0.142
0.13
0.142
0.172
Within E Europe
1.038
-0.274
3.424
4.139
4.014
2.409
1.817
1.452
1.75
0.305
0.28
0.261
0.212
0.256
Within Sub-Sahar. Africa
-3.913
-4.067
-4.849
-5.615
-5.2
-1.485
-1.334
0.586
0.609
0.609
0.525
0.449
0.316
0.322
Within N Africa & ME
-2.972
-4.225
-4.903
-4.257
-4.073
-3.631
-3.381
0.658
0.595
0.704
0.664
0.683
0.804
0.853
Within SE Asia
0.852
0.638
0.225
-0.174
-0.217
-0.232
-0.382
0.297
0.272
0.265
0.293
0.223
0.219
0.23
Within Other Asia
-4.65
-0.715
-0.422
-0.574
-0.86
-0.356
-1.278
1.637
0.751
0.962
0.773
0.788
0.634
0.789
Within Oceania
0.929
1.09
1.214
0.965
1.177
1.483
1.591
0.525
0.429
0.431
0.339
0.289
0.29
0.39
Country dummies
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
Partner dummies
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
yes
Estimation
WLS
WLS
WLS
WLS
WLS
WLS
WLS
Prob > F(dummies)
0.077
0.011
0.005
0.004
0.000
0.000
0.000
Prob > F(
@
)
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
R-squared
0.868
0.856
0.859
0.853
0.903
0.912
0.904
Root MSE
0.864
0.873
0.869
0.933
0.736
0.677
0.701
Notes:  Huber-White Heteroscedasticity robust standard errors in parentheses.  ln(X
ij
) is log bilateral exports from
country i to partner j plus one; ln(dist
ij
) is bilateral distance between countries i and jbord
ij
is a dummy for
whether the two countries share a common border.  All specifications include exporting country and importing
partner fixed effects.  Within N America is a dummy that takes the value 1 if both trade partners lie within North
America and zero otherwise.  The other within-region dummies are defined analogously.  Prob > F(dummies) is
the p-value for an F-test of the null hypothesis that the coefficients on the regional dummies are jointly equal to
zero.  Prob > F (
@
) is the p-value for an F-test of the null hypothesis that all coefficients are jointly equal to zero. 
Since the within-region dummies exploit bilateral information they are separately identified from the country and
partner fixed effects.  To allow for measurement error in bilateral trade flows that is correlated with the volume of
trade, observations are weighted by the product of country and partner GDP.  To capture the effects of NAFTA,
Mexico is included in the definition of North America.
26
Table 5: The Role of Internal Geography, External Geography, and Institutions in
Determining Export Performance, 1994-97
Dependent Variable
ln(V)
ln(V/GDP)
ln(V)
ln(V/GDP)
Period
1994/97
1994/97
1994/97
1994/97
Observations
95
95
95
95
ln(GDP(1991-93))
0.734
0.73
0.052
0.051
ln(population)
-0.038
-0.262
-0.025
-0.256
0.057
0.043
0.057
0.043
ln(F)
0.46
0.479
0.342
0.298
0.195
0.205
0.119
0.127
% Pop within 100km coast & rivers
0.581
0.416
0.596
0.441
0.191
0.061
0.187
0.199
institutional quality
0.202
0.023
0.198
0.016
0.062
0.387
0.061
0.061
Region Effects
yes
yes
yes
yes
Estimation
OLS
OLS
OLS
OLS
F(13,81)=
137.6
F(12,82)= 7.732
F(13,81)=
142.2
F(12,82)=
7.747
Prob > F
0
0
0
0
R
2
0.957
0.531
0.958
0.531
Notes:  Standard errors in parentheses.  Columns 1 and 2, FMA as computed in Section 3.  Columns 3 and 4 FMA
computed omitting own country, F*.
Figure 1 : Regional FMA and Supplier Capacity
F
o
r
e
i
g
n
M
a
r
k
e
t
A
c
c
e
s
s
Period
North America
Latin America
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
F
o
r
e
i
g
n
M
a
r
k
e
t
A
c
c
e
s
s
Period
Sub-Saharan Africa
SE Asia
Other Asia
Oceania
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
10000
20000
30000
S
u
p
p
l
i
e
r
C
a
p
a
c
i
t
y
I
n
d
e
x
(
P
e
r
i
o
d
1
=
1
)
Period
North America
Latin America
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
1.5
2
S
u
p
p
l
i
e
r
C
a
p
a
c
i
t
y
I
n
d
e
x
(
P
e
r
i
o
d
1
=
1
)
Period
Sub-Saharan Africa
SE Asia
Other Asia
Oceania
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
1.5
2
2.5
û
(V    µ
û
(F)    û
(t)    û 
(c)
Latin America
SE Asia
East Europe
Other Asia
S-S Africa
ME and NAfrica
Oceania
West Europe
North America
Figure 2: Regional export performance, 1994-97
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