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21
Copyright © 2015 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
Worldwide Prescription Drug & OTC 
Sales by Technology (2006-2020)
part 1 of 2
Resurgent small molecule drugs take majority of top 100 sales  
in 2020.
EvaluatePharma
®
finds that, although the percentage sales from 
biotechnology products (bioengineered vaccines & biologics), 
within the world’s top 100, is set to increase from 44% in 2014 to 
46% in 2020, this is lower than the 52% predicted in last year’s 
World Preview. This is partly due to a number of key biotechnology 
products, such as Sanofi’s Lantus and Roche’s Kadcyla, falling out of 
the top 100 after suffering significant forecast downgrades over the 
course of the year. Concurrently, a number of conventional drugs, 
such as Celgene’s Revlimid and Gilead’s hepatitis C franchise, have 
had their forecasts upgraded, thereby increasing their contribution 
to the total value of the top 100 drugs in 2020. In the broader 
market, sales from biotechnology products are expected to account 
for 27% of the world’s pharmaceutical sales by 2020 versus the 
current share of 23% in 2014.
20%
Technology % of Rx & OTC Sales
10%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Source: EvaluatePharma
®
22 May 2015
Worldwide Prescription Drug & OTC Pharmaceutical Sales: 
Biotech vs. Conventional Technology (2006-2020)
0%
2006
14%
86%
2007
15%
85%
2008
16%
84%
2009
17%
83%
2010
18%
82%
2011
18%
82%
2012
20%
80%
2013
22%
78%
2014
23%
77%
2015
24%
76%
2016
25%
75%
2017
25%
75%
2018
26%
74%
2019
26%
74%
2020
27%
73%
21%
79%
44%
56%
46%
54%
Biotechnology
Conventional/Unclassified
Biotech Products Within Top 100
Rapid increase in share of Top 100 products:
- 2006: 21%
- 2014: 44%
- 2020: 46%
2020 Split:
Biotech: n=42 (avg. $3.4bn)
Conv.: n=58 (avg. $2.9bn)
Worldwide Prescription Drug & OTC Sales by Technology (2006-2020)
Technology
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Biotechnology
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
18%
20%
22%
23%
24%
25%
25%
26%
26%
27%
Conventional/Unclassified
86%
85%
84%
83%
82%
82%
80%
78%
77%
76%
75%
75%
74%
74%
73%
Total Rx & OTC Sales
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
WW Sales ($bn)
Technology
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Biotechnology
78
94
108
116
127
141
152
165
179
183
199
216
235
255
278
Conventional
371
399
422
435
444
463
442
432
442
428
441
459
486
509
538
Other Unclassified Sales
118
134
151
146
150
161
159
164
160
159
168
179
190
202
213
Total Rx & OTC Sales
568
627
681
697
721
765
753
761
781
769
808
854
911
966
1029
Source: EvaluatePharma® 22 May 2015
EvaluatePharma
®
World Preview 2015
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WW Sales ($bn)
WW Market Share
Rank
Company
2014
2020
% CAGR 14-20
2014
2020
Chg. (+/-)
Rank Chg. 
1.
Roche
30.8
35.8
+3%
17.2%
12.9%
-4.3pp
+0
2.
Novo Nordisk
15.0
21.3
+6%
8.4%
7.7%
-0.7pp
+2
3.
Sanofi
16.0
20.8
+4%
9.0%
7.5%
-1.5pp
+0
4.
Amgen
17.6
20.2
+2%
9.9%
7.3%
-2.6pp
-2
5.
AbbVie
13.4
15.3
+2%
7.5%
5.5%
-2.0pp
+0
6.
Pfizer
10.8
14.0
+4%
6.0%
5.0%
-1.0pp
+0
7.
Johnson & Johnson
10.6
13.7
+4%
6.0%
4.9%
-1.0pp
+0
8.
Bristol-Myers Squibb
3.7
12.8
+23%
2.1%
4.6%
+2.5pp
+6
9.
Merck & Co
8.2
12.6
+7%
4.6%
4.6%
-0.0pp
-1
10.
Eli Lilly
6.0
12.0
+12%
3.4%
4.3%
+1.0pp
-1
Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales from Biotechnology in 2020: 
Top 10 Companies
Source: EvaluatePharma® 22 May 2015
22
Copyright © 2015 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
Worldwide Prescription Drug & OTC Sales by Technology (2006-2020)
part 2 of 2
Note: Company drug sales from undisclosed products are presumed to be from conventional (small molecule) technology.
EvaluatePharma
®
World Preview 2015
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23
Copyright © 2015 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
Top 20 Most Valuable R&D Projects  
(Ranked by Net Present Value)
part 1 of 2
Industry’s R&D pipeline valued at $493bn; Gilead’s combination 
hepatitis C product most valuable.
EvaluatePharma
®
’s NPV Analyzer finds the total value (NPV) of the 
industry’s R&D pipeline increased 18% to $492.8bn from $418.5bn. 
Gilead Sciences’s follow-on triple-combination hepatitis C product, 
GS-9857/SOF/GS-5816, is the world’s most valuable R&D product 
valued at $24.8bn. Eight of last year’s top 20 have since been 
approved and have collectively seen their NPVs increase 85% since 
June 2014, releasing $129.2bn of value from the industry’s pipeline. 
The increase in value of the industry’s pipeline to $493bn, plus the 
release of $129bn from last year’s pipeline, is another indication of 
improved industry R&D productivity.
Rank
Product
Company
Phase 
Current
Pharmacological Class
WW Product 
Sales ($m) 
2020
Today’s 
NPV 
($m)
1.
GS-9857/ SOF/ 
GS-5816
Gilead Sciences
Phase II
Hepatitis C NS3 protease, Hepatitis C nucleoside NS5A  
& NS5B polymerase inhibitor
4,578
new 
entry
24,801
2.
LCZ696
Novartis
Filed
Angiotensin II receptor (AT1) antagonist & neprilysin 
inhibitor (ARNI)
4,156
16,246
3.
Orkambi
Vertex  
Pharmaceuticals
Filed
Cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator 
(CFTR) corrector
5,082
16,037
4.
Tenofovir  
Alafenamide
Gilead Sciences
Phase III
Nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI)
3,126
new 
entry
10,638
5.
MPDL3280A
Roche
Phase III
Anti-programmed death-1 ligand-1 (PD-L1) MAb
2,049
9,619
6.
Repatha
Amgen
Filed
Anti-proprotein convertase subtilisin-like kexin type 9 
(PCSK9) MAb
2,236
8,213
7.
Obeticholic acid2
Intercept  
Pharmaceuticals
Phase III
Farnesoid X receptor (FXR) agonist
1,811
7,755
8.
Ozanimod2
Receptos
Phase III
Sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P) 1 receptor modulator
1,020
new 
entry
7,586
9.
PB2722
Puma Biotechnology
Phase III
pan-HER inhibitor
2,956
new 
entry
6,742
10.
MEDI4736
AstraZeneca
Phase III
Anti-programmed death-1 ligand-1 (PD-L1) MAb
1,201
6,545
11.
Grazoprevir/ 
Elbasvir
Merck & Co
Phase III
Hepatitis C NS3/4A protease inhibitor & hepatitis C  
nucleoside NS5A polymerase inhibitor
3,055
new 
entry
5,491
12.
Lampalizumab
Roche
Phase III
Anti-complement factor D MAb
1,099
5,391
13.
AZD9291
AstraZeneca
Phase III
Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) tyrosine  
kinase inhibitor
1,196
new 
entry
5,376
14.
Praluent
Sanofi
Filed
Anti-proprotein convertase subtilisin-like kexin type 9 
(PCSK9) MAb
1,859
4,967
15.
Venetoclax
AbbVie
Phase III
B-cell lymphoma 2 (Bcl-2) inhibitor
1,132
new 
entry
4,386
16.
Fovista2
Ophthotech
Phase III
Anti-platelet derived growth factor (PDGF)-B aptamer
1,118
new 
entry
4,217
17.1
NeoFuse2
Mesoblast
Phase III
Mesenchymal stem cell
-
4,056
18.
Solanezumab
Eli Lilly
Phase III
Anti-beta-amyloid (Abeta) MAb
951
new 
entry
3,790
19.
Dupilumab
Sanofi
Phase III
Anti-interleukin-4 (IL-4) & interleukin-13 (IL-13) MAb
1,141
new 
entry
3,790
20.
Ixazomib Oral
Takeda
Phase III
Proteasome inhibitor
1,137
new 
entry
3,534
Top 20
40,904
159,180
Other
101,443
333,647
Total
142,347
492,827
18%
NPV of R&D Pipeline June 2014: 418,525
Top 20 Most Valuable R&D Projects (Ranked by Net Present Value)
Source: EvaluatePharma® 22 May 2015
1 NeoFuse: Mesoblast expected to receive royalties
2 Obeticholic acid, Ozanimod, PB272, Fovista & NeoFuse assumed to be forecast on “best-case” basis and not fully adjusted for development risk.
EvaluatePharma
®
World Preview 2015
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24
Copyright © 2015 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
Top 20 Most Valuable R&D Projects (Ranked by Net Present Value)
part 2 of 2
Change
vs. Jun ‘14
Product
Company
Status
(June 2014)
Status Change
Since June 2014
June 2014
NPV ($m)
Today’s
NPV ($m)
Change vs.
Jun 14 (%)
Approved
Opdivo
Bristol-Myers Squibb
Phase III
Marketed
23,150
41,864
81%
Keytruda
Merck & Co
Filed
Marketed
16,747
26,803
60%
Harvoni
Gilead Sciences
Filed
Marketed
9,876
32,037
224%
Ibrance
Pfizer
Phase III
Marketed
7,925
8,877
12%
Zydelig
Gilead Sciences
Filed
Marketed
3,615
2,861
-21%
Opdivo
Ono Pharmaceutical
Filed
Marketed
2,996
6,105
104%
Plegridy
Biogen
Filed
Marketed
2,931
4,731
61%
Cosentyx
Novartis
Filed
Marketed
2,735
5,878
115%
Sub-Total
69,975
129,156
85%
Setback1
0
0
n/m
Sub-Total
0
0
n/m
Total
69,975
129,156
85%
Most Valuable R&D Projects (Ranked by NPV) in June 2014 
Which Have Since Been Approved or Suffered Setbacks
Source: EvaluatePharma® 22 May 2015
Note: 
1 None of the top R&D projects listed June 2014 have suffered a setback over the past twelve months
EvaluatePharma
®
World Preview 2015
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25
Copyright © 2015 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
Source: EvaluatePharma® 22 May 2015
Worldwide Total Pharmaceutical R&D Spend in 2006-2020
WW Pharma R&D Spend ($bn)
R&D Spend Growth (%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
+14%
+16%
+10%
+12%
+8%
+2%
+4%
+6%
+0%
-2%
-4%
108
2006
120
2007
+10.8%
129
2008
+7.9%
128
2009
-1.3%
129
2010
+1.0%
136
2011
+5.6%
135
2012
-0.8%
137
2013
+1.7%
142
2014
+3.1%
141
2015
-0.5%
144
2016
+2.1%
147
2017
+2.5%
152
2018
+2.8%
155
2019
+2.6%
160
2020
+2.8%
+3.4% CAGR 2006-14
+2.0% CAGR 2014-20
Worldwide pharmaceutical R&D spend to grow by 2.0% (CAGR) 
to $160bn in 2020.
EvaluatePharma
®
finds that worldwide pharmaceutical R&D totalled 
$141.6bn in 2014 representing an increase of 3.1% on the previous 
year. Looking forward, R&D spend is forecast to grow at a rate of 
2.0% per year, compared with the compound annual growth rate 
of 3.4% between 2006 and 2014. The spend per NME, based 
on a three-year lag period between R&D expenditure and NME 
approval*, was $2.7bn per NME in 2014, the lowest for at least the 
past seven years. This fall in spend per NME indicates increased 
productivity within the industry: essentially, companies are 
containing R&D spend whilst at the same time achieving greater 
regulatory success.
Worldwide R&D Spend by Pharma & Biotech 
Companies (2006-2020)
Worldwide R&D Spend by Pharma & Biotech Companies (2006-2020)
WW Prescription Sales ($bn)
Year
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Pharma R&D Spend
108.2
119.9
129.3
127.6
128.8
136.0
135.0
137.3
141.6
140.8
143.8
147.4
151.5
155.4
159.8
Growth per Year
+10.8%
+7.9%
-1.3%
+1.0%
+5.6%
-0.8%
+1.7%
+3.1%
-0.5%
+2.1%
+2.5%
+2.8%
+2.6%
+2.8%
WW Prescription (Rx) Sales
542
599
650
665
687
728
716
723
743
734
772
816
872
926
987
R&D as % of WW Rx Sales
20.0%
20.0%
19.9%
19.2%
18.8%
18.7%
18.9%
19.0%
19.1%
19.2%
18.6%
18.1%
17.4%
16.8%
16.2%
Generics
40
47
53
53
59
65
66
69
74
79
86
93
99
105
112
Rx excl. Generics
502
552
597
612
627
662
650
654
669
655
685
724
772
821
875
R&D as % of Rx excl. Generics
21.5%
21.7%
21.7%
20.8%
20.5%
20.5%
20.8%
21.0%
21.2%
21.5%
21.0%
20.4%
19.6%
18.9%
18.3%
Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Number of NMEs
38
28
29
26
31
34
26
35
43
35
50
Spend per NME ($bn)
2.3
3.4
3.7
4.6
4.2
3.8
5.0
3.9
3.1
3.9
2.8
Spend per NME ($bn) (3 year lag)*
3.4
3.1
3.2
4.6
3.7
3.0
3.7
2.7
Source: EvaluatePharma® 22 May 2015
Note: Industry sales based on Top 500 pharmaceutical and biotech companies.
Forecast pharmaceutical research and development spend based on a consensus of leading equity analysts’ estimates for company level R&D spend, extrapolated to pharmaceutical R&D when a 
company has non-pharmaceutical R&D activity.
* Spend per NME ($bn) (3 year lag) uses the R&D expense for 3 years prior to the NME approval instead of the same year. e.g. the 2014 figure of $2.7bn is the R&D expense in 2011 divided by the number 
of NMEs in 2014.
EvaluatePharma
®
World Preview 2015
CAGR 2014-20 on Pharma R&D Spend +2%.   Cumulative 10 year R&D Spend (2005-14) $1,260bn.
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26
Copyright © 2015 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
Pharmaceutical R&D Spend in 2020:  
Top 20 Companies
Novartis remains the biggest spender on pharmaceutical  
R&D in 2020.
EvaluatePharma
®
finds that Novartis will continue to spend the most 
on research and development in 2020, with a spend of $10.5bn in 
2020. Of the top 20, Celgene is forecast to grow its R&D expense 
the most rapidly, with R&D forecast to increase 10% per year from 
$1.8bn to $3.3bn in 2020. Overall, total R&D spend is expected to 
increase by 2.0% each year, reaching $159.8bn in 2020.
part 1 of 2
Pharma R&D Spend ($bn)
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Novartis
10.5
+2%
Roche
9.1
+1%
Pfizer
7.5
+1%
Merck & Co
7.1
+1%
Johnson &
Johnson
6.7
+1%
Sanofi
6.1
-0%
AstraZeneca
5.6
+2%
GlaxoSmithKline
5.4
+1%
Eli Lilly
4.6
+1%
Bristol-Myers-Squibb
4.2
+1%
R&D Spend ($bn)
CAGR 2014-20 (%)
Source: EvaluatePharma® 22 May 2015
Pharmaceutical R&D in 2020: Top 10 Companies
0.0
Pharma R&D ($bn)
2020 Change
R&D As a % of Rx Sales
Rank
Company
2014
2020
CAGR 14-20
vs. Jun 14
2014
2020
Chg. (+/-)
1.
Novartis
9.3
10.5
+2%
+0.0
20.2%
19.7%
-0.5pp
2.
Roche
8.6
9.1
+1%
-1.2
21.5%
20.4%
-1.1pp
3.
Pfizer
7.2
7.5
+1%
+0.6
16.1%
16.6%
+0.6pp
4.
Merck & Co
6.5
7.1
+1%
+0.5
17.8%
16.8%
-1.1pp
5.
Johnson & Johnson
6.2
6.7
+1%
+0.0
20.2%
20.5%
+0.3pp
6.
Sanofi
6.2
6.1
-0%
-1.0
16.2%
15.6%
-0.6pp
7.
AstraZeneca
4.9
5.6
+2%
+0.9
19.2%
20.1%
+0.9pp
8.
GlaxoSmithKline
5.1
5.4
+1%
-0.6
16.9%
17.1%
+0.2pp
9.
Eli Lilly
4.4
4.6
+1%
-0.0
26.8%
24.3%
-2.5pp
10.
Bristol-Myers Squibb
3.9
4.2
+1%
+0.1
32.7%
19.2%
-13.6pp
11.
Amgen
4.1
4.0
-1%
-0.1
21.3%
17.5%
-3.9pp
12.
AbbVie
3.3
3.7
+2%
+0.2
16.4%
14.1%
-2.3pp
13.
Gilead Sciences
2.7
3.4
+4%
+0.4
11.2%
12.7%
+1.6pp
14.
Boehringer Ingelheim
3.1
3.4
+2%
-0.1
23.1%
22.3%
-0.8pp
15.
Celgene
1.8
3.3
+10%
+0.3
24.7%
20.0%
-4.7pp
16.
Takeda
3.5
3.3
-1%
-0.1
27.0%
22.0%
-5.0pp
17.
Novo Nordisk
2.5
3.0
+4%
-0.3
15.5%
13.5%
-2.0pp
18.
Biogen
1.9
2.8
+7%
+0.0
23.1%
19.7%
-3.4pp
19.
Bayer
2.5
2.7
+2%
-1.1
15.3%
15.3%
+0.0pp
20.
Astellas Pharma
1.9
2.3
+3%
-0.5
18.1%
17.9%
-0.2pp
Total Top 20
89.7
98.7
+1.6%
21.1%
19.9%
-1.2pp
Other
51.9
61.1
+2.8%
Total
141.6
159.8
+2.0%
14.4%
16.3%
+1.9pp
Pharmaceutical R&D Spend (2014 & 2020): Top 20 Companies & Total Market
Source: EvaluatePharma® 22 May 2015
EvaluatePharma
®
World Preview 2015
Note: Forecast pharmaceutical R&D spend based on a consensus of leading equity analysts’ estimates for company-level R&D spend.
27
Copyright © 2015 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
FDA New Drug Approval Analysis  
NMEs & Biologicals: (2000-2014)
part 1 of 2
Record number of new drugs approved by US FDA; Sales 
potential increases by 43%
EvaluatePharma
®
finds that the FDA approved 50 new drugs in 2014 
composed of 30 new molecular entities and 20 new biologicals. 
Total USA sales five-years post launch increased  
by 43% to $26.1bn, or an average of $522m per approval  
and extends the positive performance of the past two years.  
Bristol-Myers Squibb’s Opdivo was the number one approval of 
2014 with forecast sales of $4.3bn in 2019 accounting for over  
16% of the total.
FDA Approval Count NMEs & Biologicals (2000-2014) vs. 5th Year After 
Launch USA Product Sales
Year
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
No. of NMEs Approved
27
24
17
21
31
18
18
16
21
19
15
24
33
25
30
No. of Biologicals Approved
6
8
9
14
7
10
11
10
10
15
11
11
10
10
20
Total NMEs + Biologicals
33
32
26
35
38
28
29
26
31
34
26
35
43
35
50
% Chg.
-3%
-19%
+35%
+9%
-26%
+4%
-10%
+19%
+10%
-24%
+35%
+23%
-19%
+43%
USA Sales 5yrs Post Launch $bn
7.4
8.5
12.7
8.3
14.1
6.4
9.2
4.3
5.6
5.4
11.3
10.5
13.6
18.3
26.1
% Chg.
+14%
+50%
-34%
+69%
-55%
+44%
-53%
+28%
-3%
+109%
-7%
+30%
+34%
+43%
5yr USA Sales per Approval $m
224
264
487
238
371
228
316
167
180
159
435
300
317
522
522
% Chg.
+18%
+84%
-51%
+56%
-39%
+39%
-47%
+8%
-11%
+173%
-31%
+6%
+65%
+0%
Source: EvaluatePharma
®
22 May 2015
FDA Approval Count vs. Total USA Product Sales 5 Years After Launch
USA Product Sales 5 Years 
After Launch ($bn)
No. of New Drugs
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Key Approvals in Top 5 Years 
2002 – Neulasta (AMGN),  Abilify (Otsuka/BMS), Zetia (MRK/SGP),  Humira (ABT)
2004 – Avastin (Roche),  Cymbalta (LLY), Spiriva (BI/PFE),  Lyrica (PFE)
2012 – Eliquis (BMY/PFE),  Strilbid (GILD), Xtandi (Astellas),  Xeljanz (PFE)
2013 – Sovaldi (GILD),  Tecfidera (BIIB)
2014 – Opdivo (BMY),  Harvoni (GILD), Keytruda (MRK),  Viekira Pak (ABV)
33
2000
7.4
32
2001
8.5
26
2002
12.7
35
2003
8.3
38
2004
14.1
28
2005
6.4
29
2006
9.2
26
2007
4.3
31
2008
5.6
34
2009
5.4
26
2010
11.3
35
2011
10.5
43
2012
13.6
2013
18.3
35
50
2014
26.1
USA Sales 5yrs Post Launch ($bn)
No. of NMEs Approved
Average 5th Year USA
Sales Potential: $10.8bn
Source: EvaluatePharma® 22 May 2015
Note: The number of biologicals approved include biologicals from both CDER and CBER. In 2014 there were 11 CDER biologicals approved and EvaluatePharma estimates that there were 9 CBER 
biologicals approved: Gardasil 9, Trumenba, Obizur, Ruconest, Eloctate, Ragwitek, Grastek, Oralair and Alprolix.
EvaluatePharma
®
World Preview 2015
Rank
Product
Company
Approved
2014
2019
1.
Opdivo
Bristol-Myers Squibb
Dec 2014
1
4,279
2.
Harvoni
Gilead Sciences
Oct 2014
2,001
3,855
3.
Keytruda
Merck & Co
Sep 2014
48
2,647
4.
Viekira Pak
AbbVie
Dec 2014
48
1,286
5.
Otezla
Celgene
Mar 2014
70
1,138
6.
Ofev
Boehringer Ingelheim
Oct 2014
5
1,085
7.
Cyramza
Eli Lilly
Apr 2014
76
922
8.
Plegridy
Biogen
Aug 2014
28
871
9.
Entyvio
Takeda
May 2014
184
863
10.
Esbriet
Roche
Oct 2014
5
812
Other
521
8,324
Total
2,986
26,081
Top 10 New Molecular Entities in 2014: Ranked on USA 
Consensus Sales in 2019
Source: EvaluatePharma® 22 May 2015
Note: Sales forecasts based on a consensus of leading equity analysts’ estimates.
5th year USA sales for products approved up to the end of 2009 are based on actual company reported sales.
Ofev USA sales figure for 2014 is estimated.
28
Copyright © 2015 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
FDA New Drug Approval Analysis NMEs & Biologicals: (2000 to 2014)
part 2 of 2
EvaluatePharma
®
World Preview 2015
29
Copyright © 2015 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
Worldwide Prescription Drug & OTC 
Sales by Therapy Area in 2020
part 1 of 2
Oncology Remains the Largest Segment in 2020.
EvaluatePharma
®
finds that oncology will remain the largest 
segment in 2020 with an expected annual growth of 11.6% per 
year and reaching $153.1bn in 2020. Growth from in-line products, 
and potential new entrants such as new drugs targeting the PD-1 
pathway, is expected to more than compensate for a number of key 
patent expiries between 2014 and 2020. Anti-diabetics is forecast 
to be the second biggest therapy area with sales of $60.5bn in 
2020, less than half that of oncology.
Source: EvaluatePharma
®
22 May 2015
Top 10 Therapy Areas in 2020, Market Share & Sales Growth
WW Market Share (%)
-2%
2%
0%
4%
8%
6%
10%
16%
14%
12%
18%
-4%
-2%
+0%
+2%
+4%
+6%
+8%
+10%
+12%
+14%
Anti-hypertensives
Bronchodilators
Anti-rheumatics
Immunosuppressants
Anti-virals
MS therapies
Vaccines
Sensory Organs
Anti-diabetics
Oncology
% Sales Growth: CAGR 2014-20
Sales lost from Angiotensin II segment
Diovan (NVS): $1.6bn
Benicar (Daiichi Sankyo): $1.6bn
Exforge (NVS): $1.0bn
Micardis (Boehringer): $0.9bn
Key growth drivers:
Opdivo (BMY), Imbruvica (PCYC, JNJ), Xtandi (Astellas),
Keytruda (MRK), Ibrance (PFE), Perjeta (Roche)
Key patent expiries:
Gleevec (NVS) in 2015, Rituxan (Roche) 2015+, 
Herceptin (Roche) 2014+
WW Sales ($bn)
CAGR
2020 Change
WW Market Share
Rank 
Rank
Therapy Area
2014
2020
% Growth
vs. Jun 14
2014
2020
Chg. (+/-)
Chg. (+/-)
1.
Oncology
79.2
153.1
+11.6%
+0.0
10.1%
14.9%
+4.7pp
+0
2.
Anti-diabetics
41.6
60.5
+6.4%
-8.4
5.3%
5.9%
+0.5pp
+2
3.
Anti-rheumatics
48.8
53.2
+1.5%
-3.9
6.2%
5.2%
-1.1pp
-1
4.
Anti-virals
43.1
49.6
+2.3%
+4.0
5.5%
4.8%
-0.7pp
-1
5.
Vaccines
26.7
34.7
+4.4%
-6.6
3.4%
3.4%
-0.0pp
+2
6.
Bronchodilators
32.5
32.5
+0.0%
-3.4
4.2%
3.2%
-1.0pp
-1
7.
Sensory Organs
18.6
30.4
+8.5%
+2.2
2.4%
3.0%
+0.6pp
+2
8.
Anti-hypertensives
30.5
25.8
-2.8%
-0.3
3.9%
2.5%
-1.4pp
-2
9.
MS therapies
19.4
23.1
+2.9%
+1.3
2.5%
2.2%
-0.2pp
-1
10.
Immunosuppressants
9.2
18.6
+12.5%
+3.8
1.2%
1.8%
+0.6pp
+9
Worldwide Prescription Drug & OTC Sales by EvaluatePharma
®
Therapy Area (2014 & 2020): Top 15 Categories & Total Market
Source: EvaluatePharma® 22 May 2015
EvaluatePharma
®
World Preview 2015
Top 11-15 continued over…
WW Sales ($bn)
CAGR
2020 Change
WW Market Share
Rank 
Rank
Therapy Area
2014
2020
% Growth
vs. Jun 14
2014
2020
Chg. (+/-)
Chg. (+/-)
11.
Anti-coagulants
10.8
18.3
+9.2%
+0.5
1.4%
1.8%
+0.4pp
+6
12.
Dermatologicals
12.8
17.3
+5.2%
-1.9
1.6%
1.7%
+0.0pp
+0
13.
Anti-hyperlipidaemics
17.8
15.1
-2.6%
+2.1
2.3%
1.5%
-0.8pp
-3
14.
Anti-fibrinolytics
11.4
14.7
+4.3%
-1.8
1.5%
1.4%
-0.0pp
+1
15.
Anti-bacterials
13.4
14.5
+1.4%
-3.2
1.7%
1.4%
-0.3pp
-4
Top 15
416
561
+5.1%
53.2%
54.6%
+1.3pp
Other
365
468
+4.2%
46.8%
45.4%
-1.3pp
Total WW Rx & OTC Sales
781
1,029
+4.7%
100.0%
100.0%
Total 'Rx & OTC Sales' includes:
WW Generic Sales
74.2
111.9
+7.1%
9.5%
10.9%
+1.4%
OTC Pharmaceuticals
37.7
42.1
+1.8%
4.8%
4.1%
-0.7%
Worldwide Prescription Drug & OTC Sales by Therapy Area in 2020
part 2 of 2
Source: EvaluatePharma
®
22 May 2015
Note: Industry sales based on Top 500 pharmaceutical and biotech companies. Sales in 2014 based on company reported data. Sales forecasts to 2020 based on a consensus of leading equity analysts’ 
estimates for product sales and segmental sales.
30
Copyright © 2015 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
EvaluatePharma
®
World Preview 2015
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