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31
Copyright © 2015 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
Oncology Market to 2020
part 1 of 2
Roche expected to remain largest oncology player in 2020.
EvaluatePharma
®
finds that Roche continued to dominate the 
oncology sector in 2014 with sales of $25.8bn, representing almost 
one-third of the entire market. Although Roche is expected to remain 
the market-leader through 2020, the company’s market share is 
forecast to decline by 14 percentage points as competitor products 
targeting the programmed death-1 (PD-1) pathways come online and 
Roche’s mature products (Avastin, Herceptin, Rituxan) experience 
sales’ cannibalisation from biosimilars. Overall, the cancer market is 
expected to expand by an average 10% per year between 2014 and 
2020 to $153.1bn, with worldwide sales of the new PD-1 products 
accounting for over $17bn, or 23%, of this growth.
Source: EvaluatePharma
®
22 May 2015
Worldwide Sales, Market Share & Sales Growth (2014-2020)
WW Market Share (%)
+0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
+5%
+10%
+15%
+20%
+25%
Roche
Novartis
Celgene
Bristol-Myers Squibb
Pfizer
% Sales Growth: CAGR 2014-20
Note: Bubble = WW Sales in 2020
WW Sales ($m)
CAGR
WW Market Share
Rank Chg.
Rank
Company
2014
2020
2014-20
2014
2020
2014-20
1.
Roche
25,828
28,467
+2%
32.6%
18.6%
-
2.
Celgene
7,407
14,197
+11%
9.4%
9.3%
+1
3.
Bristol-Myers Squibb
3,833
12,614
+22%
4.8%
8.2%
+2
4.
Novartis
8,729
11,314
+4%
11.0%
7.4%
-2
5.
Pfizer
3,046
8,388
+18%
3.8%
5.5%
+1
6.
Johnson & Johnson
4,158
6,812
+9%
5.2%
4.4%
-2
7.
AstraZeneca
2,997
6,725
+14%
3.8%
4.4%
-
8.
Astellas Pharma
1,459
5,332
+24%
1.8%
3.5%
+5
9.
Merck & Co
448
5,167
+50%
0.6%
3.4%
+13
10.
Eli Lilly
2,986
4,964
+9%
3.8%
3.2%
-2
Top 10
60,888
103,979
+8%
76.9%
67.9%
Other
18,317
49,115
+15%
23.1%
32.1%
Total Industry
79,206
153,094
+10%
100.0%
100.0%
Top 10 Companies & Total Worldwide Oncology Sales (2014-2020)
Source: EvaluatePharma® 22 May 2015
EvaluatePharma
®
World Preview 2015
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32
Copyright © 2015 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
Oncology Market to 2020
part 2 of 2
Top 5 Oncology Products Worldwide in 2020
Source: EvaluatePharma® 22 May 2015
WW Sales ($m)
CAGR
WW Market Share
Current
Rank
Product
Generic Name
Company
Pharmacological Class
2014
2020
2014-20
2014
2020
Status
1.
Revlimid
lenalidomide
Celgene
Immunomodulator
4,980
9,640
+12%
6.3%
6.3%
Marketed
2.
Opdivo
nivolumab
Bristol-Myers 
Squibb + Ono
Anti-programmed death-1 
(PD-1) MAb
29
8,182
+156%
0.0%
5.3%
Marketed
3.
Avastin
bevacizumab
Roche
Anti-VEGF MAb
7,018
6,202
-2%
8.9%
4.1%
Marketed
4.
Imbruvica
ibrutinib
JNJ + 
Pharmacyclics
Bruton's tyrosine kinase 
(BTK) inhibitor
547
5,586
+47%
0.7%
3.6%
Marketed
5.
Herceptin
trastuzumab
Roche
Anti-HER2 (ErbB-2) MAb
6,863
5,313
-4%
8.7%
3.5%
Marketed
Note: Oncology includes: Alkaloids, Alkylating agents, Anti-metabolites, Anti-neoplastic MAbs, Cancer vaccines, Cytotoxic antibiotics, Hormone therapies, Platinum compounds and other anti-cancer. 
Excludes anti-emetics and anti-anaemics used in chemotherapy-induced anaemia. 
Also excludes: Interferons, Immunostimulants & Immunosuppressants.
EvaluatePharma
®
World Preview 2015
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33
Copyright © 2015 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
Anti-Diabetics Market to 2020
part 1 of 2
Novo Nordisk expected to remain largest diabetes player in 
2020; Sanofi forecast to lose market share.
EvaluatePharma
®
finds that Novo Nordisk is expected to maintain 
its dominance in the anti-diabetic market through 2020. Novo’s 
sales are forecast to grow by 6% per annum to $18.0bn in 2020, 
representing a 29.1% share of the market. Sanofi, with anti-diabetic 
sales of $8.6bn in 2020, is a long way behind in second place as 
biosimilar competition to its long-acting insulin Lantus and the entry 
of new competitors into the space is expected to reduce its market 
share from 23.0% in 2014 to 14.3% in 2020.
Source: EvaluatePharma
®
22 May 2015
Worldwide Sales, Market Share & Sales Growth (2014-2020)
WW Market Share (%)
-5%
0%
5%
10%
20%
15%
25%
30%
35%
+5%
+0%
+15%
+10%
+20%
Sanofi
Merck & Co
Eli Lilly
Novo Nordisk
AstraZeneca
% Sales Growth: CAGR 2014-20
Note: Bubble = WW Sales in 2020
WW Sales ($m)
CAGR
WW Market Share
Rank Chg.
Rank
Company
2014
2020
2014-20
2014
2020
2014-20
1.
Novo Nordisk
12,488
17,980
+6%
30.0%
29.7%
+0
2.
Sanofi
9,571
8,617
-2%
23.0%
14.3%
+0
3.
Merck & Co
6,032
8,044
+5%
14.5%
13.3%
+0
4.
Eli Lilly
4,196
7,646
+11%
10.1%
12.6%
+0
5.
AstraZeneca
1,792
4,152
+15%
4.3%
6.9%
+0
6.
Boehringer Ingelheim
756
3,346
+28%
1.8%
5.5%
+2
7.
Johnson & Johnson
586
2,167
+24%
1.4%
3.6%
+4
8.
Novartis
1,304
1,564
+3%
3.1%
2.6%
-2
9.
Takeda
913
945
+1%
2.2%
1.6%
-2
10.
Merck KGaA
502
587
+3%
1.2%
1.0%
+2
Top 10
38,139
55,048
+6%
91.6%
91.0%
Other
3,477
5,413
+8%
8.4%
9.0%
Total Industry
41,616
60,462
+6%
100.0%
100.0%
Top 10 Companies & Total Worldwide Anti-Diabetic Sales (2014-2020)
Source: EvaluatePharma® 22 May 2015
EvaluatePharma
®
World Preview 2015
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34
Copyright © 2015 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
Anti-Diabetics Market to 2020
part 2 of 2
Top 5 Anti-Diabetic Products Worldwide in 2020
Source: EvaluatePharma® 22 May 2015
WW Sales ($m)
CAGR
WW Market Share
Current
Rank
Product
Generic Name
Company
Pharmacological Class
2014
2020
2014-20
2014
2020
Status
1.
Januvia/
Janumet
sitagliptin 
phosphate
Merck & Co + 
Ono + Daewoong 
+ Sigma-Tau + 
Almirall
Dipeptidyl peptidase IV 
inhibitor
6,358
7,525
+3%
15.3%
12.4%
Marketed
2.
Lantus
insulin glargine 
recombinant
Sanofi
Insulin analogue
8,428
4,935
-9%
20.3%
8.2%
Marketed
3.
NovoRapid
insulin aspart 
recombinant
Novo Nordisk
Insulin analogue
3,109
3,848
+4%
7.5%
6.4%
Marketed
4.
Victoza
liraglutide  
[rDNA origin]
Novo Nordisk
Glucagon-like peptide 1 
(GLP-1) agonist
2,393
3,486
+6%
5.7%
5.8%
Marketed
5.
Humalog
insulin lispro 
recombinant
Eli Lilly
Insulin analogue
2,785
2,908
+1%
6.7%
4.8%
Marketed
EvaluatePharma
®
World Preview 2015
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35
Copyright © 2015 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
Anti-Rheumatics Market to 2020
part 1 of 2
AbbVie’s Humira continues to account for over 25% of anti-
rheumatic market in 2020.
EvaluatePharma
®
finds that AbbVie was the number one anti-
rheumatic company in 2014 with sales of $14.1bn, representing over 
25% of the entire market. By 2020, AbbVie is forecast to remain 
number one, but with its key anti-rheumatic product, Humira, 
potentially facing biosimilar competition from 2016, this position may 
be at risk. Celgene’s recently launched product, Otezla, is expected 
to sell over $2bn by 2020 and pushes Celgene up 27 places to 
number six. Overall, the entire global anti-rheumatic market is 
expected to experience minimal growth of 1% year-on-year over  
the next six years.
Source: EvaluatePharma
®
22 May 2015
Worldwide Sales, Market Share & Sales Growth (2014-2020)
WW Market Share (%)
-6%
0%
5%
10%
20%
15%
25%
30%
35%
-4%
-3%
-5%
-2%
-1%
+1%
+0%
+2%
+3%
+4%
Merck & Co
Amgen
Johnson & Johnson
Pfizer
AbbVie
% Sales Growth: CAGR 2014-20
Note: Bubble = WW Sales in 2020
WW Sales ($m)
CAGR
WW Market Share
Rank Chg.
Rank
Company
2014
2020
2014-20
2014
2020
2014-20
1.
AbbVie
12,543
14,113
+2%
25.7%
26.5%
+0
2.
Johnson & Johnson
7,179
7,654
+1%
14.7%
14.4%
+1
3.
Pfizer
7,995
6,170
-4%
16.4%
11.6%
-1
4.
Amgen
4,688
4,489
-1%
9.6%
8.4%
+0
5.
Merck & Co
3,580
2,531
-6%
7.3%
4.8%
+0
6.
Celgene
70
2,095
+76%
0.1%
3.9%
+27
7.
Bristol-Myers Squibb
1,652
1,899
+2%
3.4%
3.6%
-1
8.
Roche
1,105
1,737
+8%
2.3%
3.3%
-1
9.
UCB
1,059
1,696
+8%
2.2%
3.2%
-1
10.
Bayer
1,051
1,082
+0%
2.2%
2.0%
+0
Top 10
40,921
43,466
+1%
83.9%
81.7%
Other
7,855
9,742
+4%
16.1%
18.3%
Total Industry
48,776
53,208
+1%
100.0%
100.0%
Top 10 Companies & Total Worldwide Anti-Rheumatic Sales (2014-2020)
Source: EvaluatePharma® 22 May 2015
EvaluatePharma
®
World Preview 2015
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36
Copyright © 2015 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
Anti-Rheumatics Market to 2020
part 2 of 2
Top 5 Anti-Rheumatic Products Worldwide in 2020
Source: EvaluatePharma® 22 May 2015
WW Sales ($m)
CAGR
WW Market Share
Current
Rank
Product
Generic Name
Company
Pharmacological Class
2014
2020
2014-20
2014
2020
Status
1.
Humira
adalimumab
AbbVie + Eisai
Anti-tumour necrosis 
factor alpha (TNFa) MAb
12,890
13,934
+1%
26.4%
26.2%
Marketed
2.
Enbrel
etanercept
Pfizer + Amgen + 
Takeda
Tumour necrosis factor 
alpha (TNFa) inhibitor
8,915
7,219
-3%
18.3%
13.6%
Marketed
3.
Remicade
infliximab
JNJ + Merck + 
Mitsubishi
Anti-tumour necrosis 
factor alpha (TNFa) MAb
8,807
6,511
-5%
18.1%
12.2%
Marketed
4.
Simponi
golimumab
JNJ + Merck
Anti-tumour necrosis 
factor alpha (TNFa) MAb
1,876
3,388
+10%
3.8%
6.4%
Marketed
5.
Otezla
apremilast
Celgene
Phosphodiesterase IV 
(PDE4) inhibitor
70
2,095
+76%
0.1%
3.9%
Marketed
Note: Anti-tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFa) inhibitor sales include RA, Crohn’s and Psoriasis.
*Combined Remicade and Simponi sales $9.9bn in 2020. Simponi (golimumab) is Merck & Co and J&J’s next generation product to Remicade (infliximab).
EvaluatePharma
®
World Preview 2015
37
Copyright © 2015 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
Vaccines Market to 2020
part 1 of 2
Merck & Co, GSK, Sanofi and Pfizer battle for the number one 
spot in 2020.
EvaluatePharma
®
finds that Merck & Co, GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi 
and Pfizer are all expected to capture around 21% of the worldwide 
vaccine market by 2020. GlaxoSmithKline is forecast to grow its 
vaccine business by an average 6% per year over the period, with 
its recent acquisition of Novartis’s vaccine (excluding flu) business 
adding over $1.6bn in worldwide sales by 2020. Following its 
disposal of its vaccine business to GlaxoSmithKline, Novartis’s share 
of the global market is forecast to fall to 2.8% in 2020 and will fall 
further if it successfully disposes of its flu vaccines to CSL.
Source: EvaluatePharma
®
22 May 2015
Worldwide Sales, Market Share & Sales Growth (2014-2020)
WW Market Share (%)
-8%
-5%
0%
5%
15%
10%
20%
25%
30%
-4%
-2%
-6%
+4%
+2%
+0%
+6%
+8%
+10%
Novartis
Merck & Co + 
50% Sanofi 
Pasteur MSD
Pfizer
GlaxoSmithKline
Sanofi + 50% Sanofi
Pasteur MSD
% Sales Growth: CAGR 2014-20
Note: Bubble = WW Sales in 2020
WW Sales ($m)
CAGR
WW Market Share
Rank Chg.
Rank
Company
2014
2020
2014-20
2014
2020
2014-20
1.
Merck & Co + 50% Sanofi Pasteur MSD
6,246
7,497
+3%
23.4%
21.6%
+0
2.
Pfizer
4,480
7,440
+9%
16.8%
21.4%
+2
3.
GlaxoSmithKline
5,258
7,343
+6%
19.7%
21.1%
+0
4.
Sanofi + 50% Sanofi Pasteur MSD
5,845
7,253
+4%
21.9%
20.9%
-2
5.
Novartis
1,537
979
-7%
5.7%
2.8%
+0
6.
Emergent BioSolutions
246
506
+13%
0.9%
1.5%
+6
7.
Takeda
315
377
+3%
1.2%
1.1%
+1
8.
Astellas Pharma
355
369
+1%
1.3%
1.1%
-2
9.
AstraZeneca
295
318
+1%
1.1%
0.9%
+1
10.
Mitsubishi Tanabe
272
276
+0%
1.0%
0.8%
+1
Top 10
24,848
32,359
+5%
92.9%
93.2%
Other
1,897
2,368
+4%
7.1%
6.8%
Total Industry
26,746
34,727
+4%
100.0%
100.0%
Top 10 Companies & Total Worldwide Vaccine Sales (2014-2020)
Source: EvaluatePharma® 22 May 2015
EvaluatePharma
®
World Preview 2015
38
Copyright © 2015 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
Vaccines Market to 2020
part 2 of 2
Top 5 Vaccine Products Worldwide in 2020
Source: EvaluatePharma® 22 May 2015
WW Sales ($m)
CAGR
WW Market Share
Current
Rank
Product
Generic Name
Company
2014
2020
2014-20
2014
2020
Status
1.
Prevnar 13
pneumococcal vaccine
Pfizer + Daewoong
4,297
5,833
+5%
16.3%
16.8%
Marketed
2.
Gardasil
human papillomavirus (HPV) 
vaccine
Merck + Sanofi Pasteur 
MSD + CSL
2,029
2,523
+4%
7.7%
7.3%
Marketed
3.
Fluzone/Vaxigrip
influenza vaccine
Sanofi + Sanofi Pasteur 
MSD
1,724
2,026
+3%
6.5%
5.8%
Marketed
4.
Pentacel
DTPa, Hib & polio vaccine
Sanofi
1,533
1,683
+2%
5.8%
4.8%
Marketed
5.
Pediarix
DTP, hepatitis B & polio 
vaccine
GlaxoSmithKline
1,364
1,543
+2%
5.2%
4.4%
Marketed
Note: Sanofi Pasteur MSD is a European joint venture between Merck & Co and Sanofi. Sales for NVS do not reflect proposed disposal of NVS’s influenza vaccine business to CSL.
EvaluatePharma
®
World Preview 2015
39
Copyright © 2015 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
Anti-Virals Market to 2020
part 1 of 2
Gilead continues to dominate anti-viral market in 2020.
EvaluatePharma
®
finds that Gilead will continue to command over 
50% of the anti-virals market in 2020 with sales set to increase 
2% per year between 2014 and 2020. Gilead’s success in this 
area is largely due to its hepatitis C franchise, which is collectively 
forecast to contribute over $13bn to 2020 worldwide anti-viral 
sales. Johnson & Johnson’s anti-viral sales are expected to fall by 
an average 15% per year between 2014 and 2020 primarily due to 
its hepatitis C product, Olysio, experiencing increased competition 
from Gilead’s Harvoni and AbbVie’s Viekira Pak.
Source: EvaluatePharma
®
22 May 2015
Worldwide Sales, Market Share & Sales Growth (2014-2020)
WW Market Share (%)
-20%
0%
10%
20%
40%
30%
50%
60%
-10%
-15%
0%
+5%
-5%
+10%
+15%
+20%
Johnson & Johnson
GlaxoSmithKline
Merck & Co
Gilead Sciences
% Sales Growth: CAGR 2014-20
Note: Bubble = WW Sales in 2020
AbbVie
WW Sales ($m)
CAGR
WW Market Share
Rank Chg.
Rank
Company
2014
2020
2014-20
2014
2020
2014-20
1.
Gilead Sciences
22,790
25,411
+2%
52.8%
51.3%
-
2.
GlaxoSmithKline
3,318
5,305
+8%
7.7%
10.7%
+1
3.
Merck & Co
1,974
4,539
+15%
4.6%
9.2%
+3
4.
AbbVie
2,180
3,366
+8%
5.1%
6.8%
+1
5.
Johnson & Johnson
5,131
1,933
-15%
11.9%
3.9%
-3
6.
Bristol-Myers Squibb
3,252
1,678
-10%
7.5%
3.4%
-2
7.
Sino Biopharmaceutical
723
1,411
+12%
1.7%
2.8%
+1
8.
Achillion Pharmaceuticals
-
1,201
n/m
-
2.4%
new
9.
Roche
1,930
603
-18%
4.5%
1.2%
-2
10.
Arrowhead Research
-
599
n/m
-
1.2%
new
Top 10
41,298
46,046
+2%
95.7%
92.9%
Other
1,833
3,519
+11%
4.3%
7.1%
Total Industry
43,132
49,566
+2%
100.0%
100.0%
Top 10 Companies & Total Worldwide Anti-viral Sales (2014-2020)
Source: EvaluatePharma® 22 May 2015
EvaluatePharma
®
World Preview 2015
40
Copyright © 2015 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
Anti-Virals Market to 2020
part 2 of 2
Top 5 Anti-viral Products Worldwide in 2020
Source: EvaluatePharma® 22 May 2015
WW Sales ($m)
CAGR
WW Market Share
Current
Rank
Product
Generic Name
Company
Pharmacological Class
2014
2020
2014-20
2014
2020
Status
1.
Harvoni
ledipasvir; 
sofosbuvir
Gilead Sciences
Hep C nucleoside NS5A 
& NS5B polymerase 
inhibitor
2,127
5,751
+18%
4.9%
11.6%
Marketed
2.
GS-9857/ SOF/ 
GS-5816
-
Gilead Sciences
Hep C NS3 protease, 
Hep C nucleoside NS5A 
& NS5B polymerase 
inhibitor
-
4,578
n/m
-
9.2%
R&D
3.
Tivicay
dolutegravir
GlaxoSmithKline
HIV integrase inhibitor
558
3,647
+37%
1.3%
7.4%
Marketed
4.
Stribild
cobicistat; 
elvitegravir; 
emtricitabine; 
tenofovir disoproxil 
fumarate
Gilead + Torii
NRTI, HIV integrase 
inhibitor & CYP3A 
inhibitor
1,215
3,524
+19%
2.8%
7.1%
Marketed
5.
Tenofovir 
Alafenamide
tenofovir 
alafenamide 
fumarate
Gilead Sciences
NRTI
-
3,126
n/m
-
6.3%
R&D
Note: GlaxoSmithKline consolidates 100% of the revenues from ViiV Healthcare, a joint venture with Pfizer for the marketing of the two companies’ HIV anti-virals.
EvaluatePharma
®
World Preview 2015
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