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Everything you know is wrong!
Everything you know is wrong!
ong!
•No matter how good your estimates and forecasts –
g
y
of future NOI, of going‐out cap rates, vacancy rates, 
etc. –we know one thing for certain: your forecasts 
willbewrong
will be wrong.
g.
.
•Forget “the” rate of return or “the” NPV.  Think of 
ranges,probabilities.
ranges, probabilities.
.
•Many ways to take this on, Scenario Manager is a 
useful start.
T–o get started in 2003:  TOOLS, SCENARIOS, ADD…
I–n 2007:  DATA tab of the Ribbon, DATA TOOLS 
section, “WHAT‐IF ANALYSIS”
© 2010 S. Malpezzi
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Scenario Manager
r
•At a minimum, I define three scenarios: my “likely” scenario, 
“optimistic case,” and “worst case.”
e.”
–Likely:  my bestestimates and forecasts
Optimistic: a good day at the office, but still reasonable.
.
p
g
y
–Worst Case:  vacancies and interest rates rising, rents 
falling, a good day to teach rather than invest.
•To get started: “Tools, Scenario, Add” then follow through 
g
,
,
g
menus.  Obviously, you’ll want to create at least two 
scenarios.
•Trap:  IF Calculation is set to Manual, Scenario Manager 
 
p
,
g
doesn’t work.  In the Tools menu, set Calculation to Automatic.
© 2010 S. Malpezzi
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Another scenario (or set of scenarios) you 
should include.
de.
.
•What assumptions drive you to the threshold of default?  (EG 
to a debt coverage ratio less than one?  Where the value of 
the building falls below the value of the mortgage?)
Can undertake trial and error.
ror.
–Can use SOLVER to find assumptions that drive you to the 
threshold.
•Note:  If you have (say) two key inputs (rent, and stabilized 
tabilized 
 
vacancy rate) and only one criterion for default (DCR), there 
are many possible solutions.
Simple solution:  you can either fix rents and change 
vacancy, or the reverse.
More sophisticated: you can specify a relationship 
nship 
 
between rents and vacancies within Solver.
© 2010 S. Malpezzi
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Named Ranges would
be good here!!!
Scenario Manager Output
ut
Scenario Summary
Current Values:
High
Medium
Low
Changing Cells:
ZGR_SF
15
16
15
13
ZVAC1
30%
30%
25%
40%
ZVAC2
10%
10%
10%
20%
ZVAC3
5%
5%
5%
10%
Result Cells:
:
$I$28
10,027,927
10,696,455
10,027,927
7,900,791
$E$48
(988,669)
(655,769)
(951,807)
(2,126,186)
$E$49
0.77%
6.07%
1.21%
-24.10%
$F$50
0.49
0.53
0.58
0.28
Notes:  Current Values column represents values of changing cells at
time Scenario Summary Report was created.  Changing cells for each
scenario are highlighted in gray.
gray.
© 2010 S. Malpezzi
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Alternatives to Scenario Manager
ger
•DataTables
Data Tables
s
A–lso in “What‐If” section. Figure out on your own.
© 2010 S. Malpezzi
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Common functions you should know cold.
cold.
•SUM,AVERAGE,MEDIAN,PERCENTILE
SUM, AVERAGE, MEDIAN, PERCENTILE
ILE
•PV, NPV, IRR
•PMT FV
PMT, FV
V
•LN, EXP
IF
•How to use SOLVER (not a function, strictly, but 
extremely useful).
© 2010 S. Malpezzi
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Some tips on familiar functions (I)
 (I)
•Got data?  Great!  How to summarize it?  Measures of central tendency 
are the first step!
!
•Everyone is familiar with average.  Consider using medians and other 
“order statistics”
•AVERAGE(value1,value2,...)
,...)
•Medians are better measures of central tendency for variables that are 
very skewed –like real estate values, incomes…
MEDIAN(number1,number2,...)
..)
•A more versatile function computes medians, quartiles, deciles, or any 
percentile‐based statistic:
PERCENTILE(array,k)
k)
)
–To compute a median with PERCENTILE, set k=.5
© 2010 S. Malpezzi
Some tips on familiar functions (II)
(II)
•Remember the differences between PV and NPV:
–PV is the present value of a repeated payment of constant 
size; NPV is the present value of a stream of varying 
payments.
PV(rate,nper,pmt,fv,type)
NPV(rate,value1,value2, ...)
•Remember that NPV starts discounting immediately.  If your 
investment is made today (undiscounted), compare:
=NPV(–300,100,100,100) is incorrect
rrect
( 300, 00, 00, 00) s co ect
t
=–300+NPV(100,100,100) is correct
© 2010 S. Malpezzi
IF Function
n
•Returnsonevalueifaconditionyouspecify
Returns one value if a condition you specify 
pecify 
 
evaluates to TRUE and another value if it evaluates to 
FALSE.
•Use IF to conduct conditional tests on values and 
formulas.
•IF(logical_test,value_if_true,value_if_false)
© 2010 S. Malpezzi
Some very handy, but under‐appreciated, 
functions
ns
•RAND (random number generator)
(
g
)
•MIRR (modified IRR, accounting for finance and reinvestment 
interest)
•XIRR, XNPV (IRR and NPV for irregular cash flows)
•ISERROR (returns an Excel error value; use with IF, as in:
=IF(ISERROR(B12),”We Are Doomed”,”Life is Good”)
d”)
© 2010 S. Malpezzi
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