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adjustment. So, in order to avoid that detection, perhaps we only
call 90% of the time. We lose some immediate value by not
calling every time; however, we probably delay, maybe even
avoid, him detecting the high frequency of our calling. We start
to bring this teeter-tottering strategy to the center a bit. We’re
developing a more defensive strategy, and this finally brings us
to the idea of a balanced strategy.
A perfectly balanced strategy is a strategy that cannot be
exploited. If we want to measure how balanced a strategy is, we
can do so by finding out how exploitable it is. Again, let’s look
at our example where our opponent bets $10 into a $10 pot. We
know when he always bluffs or never bluffs his strategy is very
exploitable. However, as he approaches a 33% bluffing
frequency, the EV of any decision we make begins to approach
0. As a matter of fact, if he were to bluff exactly 33% of the
time, we would not be able to exploit him in any way. No
decision we make has any value. Even though he may be able to
make more money by changing his bluffing frequencies, making
this balanced play has defended him against being counter-
exploited. This is the essence of balanced play, defense. Now,
let’s talk about balanced play a bit.
“Balanced” poker just sounds good, doesn’t it? The word
balance just tends to have positive connotations. But,
developing a perfectly balanced game of poker is not a
possibility. The game is simply too complicated for even today's
most advanced computers. However, approaching balanced
poker in certain situations is certainly a possibility. But, let’s
consider what we’ve learned so far and think about why we
would want to play a balanced game of poker? Remember that
exploitive play is when we're playing against opponents who
have a static strategy or predictably changing strategy. Against
opponents who do not fit this mold, we need to begin thinking
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about balanced poker. There are only two practical reasons why
we would want to try to play a balanced game. One would be
that we have no information on our opponent. Our opponent is
brand new to us, and we have few assumptions to make about his
strategy. However, this situation probably won’t exist long for a
good player. Good players are experts at gathering and using
information. It just takes a couple orbits for an expert to start
classifying players with a decent amount of accuracy.
The second reason to play a balanced game is because our
opponent is better at exploitive play than we are. We feel he will
win the battle of information. He’ll gain information more
quickly and accurately than us. He’ll use the information better
than us. He’ll adjust to our adjustments better than we will do to
him. Or more simply put, we’re outmatched. In this case, we
would be better off playing a balanced game and taking away the
edge our opponent has in the exploitive game. However, this
scenario shows us something more important. We’re probably
not practicing good table selection.
In my opinion, the idea of developing a balanced game is
stressed much too heavily for the vast majority of poker players.
In fact, many players today are wasting a lot of time trying to
work out a balanced game. This is not to say that understanding
balanced play is useless or that it has no application in poker
today. However, the vast majority of poker players are small-
stakes and micro-stakes players. When you log into many poker
sites, there are tens of thousands of players. Most of them are
bad at poker. Many times you can play a maximally exploitive
game with no fear whatsoever of counter-exploitation. If you are
finding yourself in a position where you are worried about being
counter-exploited so much you want to play a totally balanced
game of poker, there’s a much simpler solution. Find a different
table. When a player pool is large, good table selection will beat
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balanced poker every day of the week. And at the stakes most
players play, there is no shortage of bad players. Now, if you are
so bad at poker, you can’t exploit players at small stakes, you
need to know that you’ll not be able to play a balanced game of
poker. Understanding balanced poker and approaching
implementing it requires advanced understanding of the game.
By the time a struggling small-stakes player can begin
developing a balanced game, they’d be better off exploiting all
the bad players.
So, what value does balance have? Thinking about balanced
poker can help you grow in your poker theory and come up with
new ideas. Understanding balanced poker can help you think
about how to make adjustments to win an information battle.
And understanding balanced poker will help you out in situations
where you are simply forced to be sitting with players playing a
superior strategy to yours. As you reach higher limits where the
player pools are extremely small and the majority of players are
very tough, developing a well-balanced strategy can take on a lot
more importance. For most advanced players, however, much of
what can be accomplished in thinking about balanced poker
comes along intuitively. They can feel the spots that have
glaring holes in their strategy and can work to balance those if
they need to.
But, for mid-stakes players on down to micro-stakes players,
dedicating a lot of time developing balanced strategies is not the
most +EV way to spend their time. Having said that, I enjoy
thinking about balanced poker, and it certainly has its place in
poker discussions. However, when I hear a micro-stakes player
talking about not making a play because it’s unbalanced, I just
sigh a bit. Even if those players could manage to play a well-
balanced game, the choice to play it instead of maximally
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exploiting the poor players littering those limits would not be
optimal.
Quiz
(Answers on pg. 202)
1. If your opponent bets $20 into a $20 pot and is bluffing
30% of the time, how often would you fold when
playing a maximally exploitive strategy?
2. What two criteria must be met for you to be concerned
about counter-exploitation?
3. What are two responses when we fear counter-
exploitation?
1. What are some reasons why spending a lot of time
developing a balanced game of poker would be a waste
of time for most poker players?
4. When should you be concerned about developing more
balanced strategies?
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Summary
Champions
Often times when I mention working on poker away from the
poker table, many players ask “What can I do away from the
table?” Well, I hope you’ve gotten a feel for the many ways you
can improve your game away from the table. We’ve spent a lot
of time showing you how to analyze hold’em situations. The
measure of benefit you gain will be directly related to the time
and effort you spend using this information away from the poker
table to improve your game. I stressed many times that working
on these situations away from the table will help you internalize
them. You’ll begin to develop an intuition about certain
situations.
I’ve always appreciated hearing the stories of champions like
Michael Jordan and Larry Bird. There’s a thread running
through all the stories. The thread is dedication and practice.
They were always the first ones in the gym and the last ones out.
While talent is to be envied, hard work will take you a long way.
You’ll know when you’re sitting across the table from someone
who hasn’t been working. It’s just a matter of time until his
chips get shipped your way.
Several times a week, I’ll make sure I note a few hands while
I’m playing. It may be a hand where I felt uncomfortable or
where I had a new idea I wanted to analyze. I then spend a few
hours breaking them down to discover some new edge I can push
at the poker tables. Also, discussing strategy in a poker forum,
like those at dragthebar.com, will help your game tremendously.
The help I’ve received from poker forums has been invaluable.
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Congratulations on making your way through this book. I hope
it helped you gain an understanding of how to make the best
decision in a poker hand. You are now well-equipped to answer
one of the two keys to good poker. You probably noticed how I
always gave you the assumptions regarding our opponent’s range
and asked yourself “How do I get those assumptions?” My next
book will be focusing on the other key to good poker, accurate
assumptions. I’ll see you then.
Enjoy your games.
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Appendix A
True EV and Evaluative EV
Evaluative EV is not a term I’ve seen used in poker circles, but I
think it best describes what poker players are doing when they
evaluate the EV of different betting sizes. True EV and
evaluative EV are answering different questions. Evaluative EV
answers “What bet size is better?” True EV answers “How
much richer will I be after I make this wager?”
Let’s look at an example to see the distinction between these two
terms.
Hero: A
♥A♠
Board: A
♣
A
♦
2
♦J♠8♠
Looking at this example, we would typically analyze the
situation by only looking at the hands we felt had any chance of
calling. Perhaps that range looks like this:
Villain:
•
Call $20 – KJ, 22, 88
•
Call $80 – 22, 88
We have 18 combinations in this range. We could then analyze
the EV of each bet given this range assuming villain never raises.
The EV of betting $20 is:
0.67($20) = $13.40
The EV of betting $80 is:
0.33($80) = $26.40
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