85
up to 600 megawatts, an installation that could satisfy half the
state’s residential electricity needs.21
East Coast off-shore wind is attractive for three reasons.
One, it is strong and reliable. The off-shore region stretching
from Massachusetts southward to North Carolina has a poten-
tial wind generating capacity that exceeds the requirement of
the states in the region. Two, the East Coast has an extensive,
rather shallow off-shore area, which makes off-shore wind con-
struction less costly. And three, this electricity source is close to
consumers.22
To the north, Canada, with its vast area and only 33 million
people, has one of the highest wind-to-population ratios of any
country. Ontario, Quebec, and Alberta are far and away the
leaders in installed capacity at this point. But in recent months
three of Canada’s four Atlantic provinces—New Brunswick,
Prince Edward Island, and Nova Scotia—have begun discus-
sions to jointly develop and export some of their wealth of
wind energy to the densely populated U.S. Northeast.23
Impressive though the U.S. growth is, the expansion now
under way in China is even more so. China has some 12,000
megawatts of wind generating capacity, mostly in the 50- to
100-megawatt wind farm category, with many more medium-
size wind farms coming. Beyond this, its Wind Base program is
creating six mega-complexes of wind farms of at least 10
gigawatts each. These are located in Gansu Province (15
gigawatts), Western Inner Mongolia (20 gigawatts), Eastern
Inner Mongolia (30 gigawatts), Hebei Province (10 gigawatts),
Xinjiang Hami (20 gigawatts), and along the coast north of
Shanghai in Jiangsu Province (10 gigawatts). When completed,
these complexes will have a generating capacity of 105
gigawatts—as much wind power as the entire world had in early
2008.24
In considering the land requirements to produce energy,
wind turbines are extraordinarily efficient. For example, an acre
of corn land in northern Iowa used to site a wind turbine can
produce $300,000 worth of electricity per year. This same acre
of land planted in corn would yield 480 gallons of ethanol
worth $960. This extraordinary energy yield of land used for
wind turbines helps explain why investors find wind farms so
attractive.25
Stabilizing Climate: Shifting to Renewable Energy
115
tricity to 50 percent, with most of the additional power coming
from off-shore. In contemplating this prospect, Danish planners
have turned energy policy upside down. They are looking at
using wind as the mainstay of their electrical generating system
and fossil-fuel-generated power to fill in when the wind ebbs.
16
In Spain, which already has nearly 17,000 megawatts of
capacity, the government is shooting for 20,000 megawatts by
2010. France, a relative newcomer to wind energy, is looking to
develop 25,000 megawatts of wind by 2020; out of this, 6,000
megawatts would be off-shore.17
As of early 2009 the United States had just over 28,000
megawatts of wind generating capacity, with an additional 38
wind farms under construction. Beyond this, proposed wind
farms that can generate some 300,000 megawatts are on hold,
awaiting grid construction.18
In addition to Texas and California, which is planning a
4,500-megawatt wind farm complex in the southern end of the
state, several other states are emerging as wind superpowers. As
noted earlier, Clipper Windpower and BP are teaming up to
build the 5,050-megawatt Titan wind farm in eastern South
Dakota. Colorado billionaire Philip Anschutz is developing a
2,000-megawatt wind farm in south central Wyoming to gener-
ate electricity for transmission to California, Arizona, and
Nevada.19
In the east, Maine—a wind energy newcomer—is planning
to develop 3,000 megawatts of wind generating capacity, far
more than the state’s 1.3 million residents need. New York
State, which has 1,300 megawatts of wind generating capacity,
plans to add another 8,000 megawatts, with most of the power
being generated by winds coming off Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario. And soon Oregon will nearly double its wind generat-
ing capacity with the 900-megawatt wind farm planned for the
windy Columbia River Gorge.20
While U.S. attention has focused on the wind-rich Great
Plains, and rightly so, another area is now gathering attention.
For years, the only off-shore wind project in the east that was
moving through the permitting stage was a 400-megawatt proj-
ect off the coast of Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Now Massachu-
setts has been joined by Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey,
and Delaware. Delaware is planning an off-shore wind farm of
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PLAN B 4.0
85
Wind turbines can be mass-produced on assembly lines,
much as B-24 bombers were in World War II at Ford’s massive
Willow Run assembly plant in Michigan. Indeed, the idled
capacity in the U.S. automobile industry is sufficient to produce
all the wind turbines the world needs to reach the Plan B global
goal. Not only do the idle plants exist, but there are skilled
workers in these communities eager to return to work. The state
of Michigan, for example, in the heart of the wind-rich Great
Lakes region, has more than its share of idled auto assembly
plants.30
Wind has many attractions. For utilities, being able to sign
long-term fixed-price contracts is a godsend for them and their
customers. When they look at natural gas, they look at a fuel
source with a volatile price. When they look at coal-fired power,
they face the uncertainty of future carbon costs.
The appeal of wind energy can be seen in its growth relative
to other energy sources. In 2008, for example, wind accounted
for 36 percent of new generating capacity in the European
Union compared with 29 percent for natural gas, 18 percent for
photovoltaics, 10 percent for oil, and only 3 percent for coal. In
the United States, new wind generating capacity has exceeded
coal by a wide margin each year since 2005. Worldwide, no new
nuclear-generating capacity came online in 2008, while new
wind generating capacity totaled 27,000 megawatts. The struc-
ture of the world energy economy is not just changing, it is
changing fast.31
Solar Cells and Thermal Collectors
Energy from the sun can be harnessed with solar photovoltaics
(PV) and solar thermal collectors. Solar PV cells—both often
silicon-based semiconductors and thin films—convert sunlight
directly into electricity.Solar thermal collectors convert sunlight
into heat that can be used, for example, to warm water, as in
rooftop solar water heaters. Alternatively, collectors can be used
to concentrate sunlight on a vessel containing water to produce
steam and generate electricity.
Worldwide, photovoltaic installations jumped by some 5,600
megawatts in 2008, pushing total installations to nearly 15,000
megawatts. One of the world’s fastest-growing energy sources,
solar PV production is growing by 45 percent annually, doubling
Stabilizing Climate: Shifting to Renewable Energy
117
And since wind turbines occupy only 1 percent of the land
covered by a wind farm, farmers and ranchers continue to grow
grain and graze cattle. In effect, they can double crop their land,
simultaneously harvesting a food crop—wheat, corn, or cattle—
and energy. With no investment on their part, farmers and ranch-
ers typically receive $3,000–10,000 a year in royalties for each
wind turbine erected on their land. For thousands of ranchers in
the U.S. Great Plains, the value of electricity produced on their
land in the years ahead will dwarf their cattle sales.26
One of the early concerns with wind energy was the risk it
posed to birds, but this can be managed by careful siting to
avoid risky migration and breeding areas. The most recent
research indicates that bird fatalities from wind farms are
minuscule compared with the number of birds that die flying
into skyscrapers, colliding with cars, or being captured by
cats.
27
Other critics are concerned about the visual effect. When
some people see a wind farm they see a blight on the landscape.
Others see a civilization-saving source of energy. Although there
are NIMBY problems (“not in my backyard”), the PIMBY
response (“put it in my backyard”) is much more pervasive.
Within rural communities, competition for wind farms—
whether in ranch country in Colorado or dairy country in
upstate New York—is intense. This is not surprising, since the
jobs, the royalties from wind turbines, and the additional tax
revenue are welcomed by local communities.
At the heart of Plan B is a crash program to develop 3,000
gigawatts (3 million megawatts) of wind generating capacity by
2020, enough to satisfy 40 percent of world electricity needs.
This will require a near doubling of capacity every two years, up
from a doubling every three years over the last decade.
28
This climate-stabilizing initiative would require the installa-
tion of 1.5 million wind turbines of 2 megawatts each. Manu-
facturing such a huge number of wind turbines over the next 11
years sounds intimidating until it is compared with the 70 mil-
lion automobiles the world produces each year. At $3 million
per installed turbine, this would mean investing $4.5 trillion by
2020, or $409 billion per year. This compares with world oil and
gas capital expenditures that are projected to reach $1 trillion
per year by 2016.29
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87
in fighting climate change. Although the estimated 1.5 billion
kerosene lamps used worldwide provide less than 1 percent of
all residential lighting, they account for 29 percent of that sec-
tor’s CO
2
emissions. They use the equivalent of 1.3 million bar-
rels of oil per day, equal to roughly half the oil production of
Kuwait.37
The cost of solar energy is falling fast in industrial countries.
Michael Rogol and his PHOTON consulting firm estimate that
by 2010 fully integrated companies that encompass all phases of
solar PV manufacturing will be installing systems that produce
electricity for 12¢ a kilowatt-hour in sun-drenched Spain and
18¢ a kilowatt-hour in southern Germany. Although these costs
will be dropping below those of conventional electricity in
many locations, this will not automatically translate into a
wholesale conversion to solar PV. But as one energy industry
analyst observes, the “big bang” is under way.
38
After starting with relatively small residential rooftop instal-
lations, investors are now turning to utility-scale solar cell com-
plexes. A 20-megawatt facility completed in Spain in 2007 was
the largest ever built—but not for long. A 60-megawatt facility,
also in Spain, came online in 2008 and tripled the ante. Even
larger solar cell installations are being planned, including 80-
megawatt facilities in California and Israel.39
In mid-2008, Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E), one of two
large utilities in California, announced a contract with two
firms to build solar PV installations with a combined generat-
ing capacity of 800 megawatts. Covering 12 square miles, this
complex will generate as much electricity at peak power as a
nuclear power plant. The bar has been raised yet again.40
And in early 2009, China Technology Development Group
Corporation and Qinghai New Energy Group announced they
were joining forces to build a 30-megawatt solar PV power facili-
ty in remote Qinghai Province. This is the first stage in what is
eventually expected to become a 1,000-megawatt generating facil-
ity. For a country that ended 2008 with only 145 megawatts of
installed solar cell capacity, this is a huge leap into the future.41
More and more countries, states, and provinces are setting
solar installation goals. Italy’s solar industry group is projecting
16,000 megawatts of installed capacity by 2020. Japan is plan-
ning 14,000 megawatts by 2020. The state of California has set
Stabilizing Climate: Shifting to Renewable Energy
119
every two years. In 2006, when Germany installed 1,100
megawatts of solar cell generating capacity, it became the first
country to add over 1 gigawatt (1,000 megawatts) in a year.32
Until recently PV production was concentrated in Japan,
Germany, and the United States. But several energetic new play-
ers have entered the field, with companies in China, Taiwan, the
Philippines, South Korea, and the United Arab Emirates. China
overtook the United States in PV production in 2006. Taiwan
did so in 2007. Today there are scores of firms competing in the
world market, driving investments in both research and manu-
facturing.33
For the nearly 1.6 billion people living in communities not
yet connected to an electrical grid, it is now often cheaper to
install PV panels rooftop-by-rooftop than to build a central
power plant and a grid to reach potential consumers. For
Andean villagers, for example, who have depended on tallow-
based candles for their lighting, the monthly payment for a solar
cell installation over 30 months is less than the monthly outlay
for candles.34
When a villager buys a solar PV system, that person is in
effect buying a 25-year supply of electricity. With no fuel cost
and very little maintenance, it is the upfront outlaythat requires
financing. Recognizing this, the World Bank and the U.N. Envi-
ronment Programme have stepped in with programs to help
local lenders set up credit systems to finance this cheap source
of electricity. An initial World Bank loan has helped 50,000
homeowners in Bangladesh obtain solar cell systems. A second,
much larger round of funding will enable 200,000 more families
to do the same.35
Villagers in India who lack electricity and who depend on
kerosene lamps face a similar cost calculation. Installing a home
solar electric system in India, including batteries, costs roughly
$400. Such systems will power two, three, or four small appli-
ances or lights and are widely used in homes and shops in lieu
of polluting and increasingly costly kerosene lamps. In one year
akerosene lamp burns nearly 20 gallons of kerosene, which at
$3 a gallon means $60 per lamp. A solar PV lighting system that
replaces two lamps would pay for itself within four years and
then become essentially a free source of electricity.36
Switching from kerosene to solar cells is particularly helpful
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PLAN B 4.0
85
The first plant under construction in Algeria is a solar/natu-
ral-gas hybrid, with the natural gas taking over power genera-
tion entirely after the sun goes down. Although the first few
plants in this massive new project will be hybrids, New Energy
Algeria, the government firm specifically created to encourage
renewable energy development, plans soon to switch exclusively
to solar thermal power. These plants will likely use molten salt
or some other medium for storing heat in order to extend gen-
eration several hours beyond sundown and through the high-
demand evening hours.47
The U.S. plants under development and this announcement
by the Algerians were the early indications that the world is
entering the utility-scale solar thermal power era. By the end of
2008, there were some 60 commercial-scale solar thermal power
plants in the pipeline, most of them in the United States and
Spain. Among the 10 largest proposed plants, 8 are to be built
in the United States. Ranging in size from 250 to 900 megawatts,
most of them will be in California. The early months of 2009
brought many more announcements. BrightSource Energy
announced a blockbuster package with Southern California
Edison of seven projects with a collective total of 1,300
megawatts of generating capacity. Shortly thereafter, it
announced an identical package with PG&E’s. NRG, a New
Jersey–based firm, and eSolar announced that together
they would develop 500 megawatts of CSP at sites in the south-
western United States.48
Spain, another solar superpower, has 50 or so plants, each
close to 50 megawatts in size, in various phases of development.
There are a scattering of proposed CSP plants in other coun-
tries, including Israel, Australia, South Africa, the United Arab
Emirates, and Egypt. At least a dozen other sun-drenched coun-
tries now recognize the potential of this inexhaustible, low-cost
source of electricity and are mobilizing to tap it.49
One of the countries for which CSP plants are ideally suited
is India. Although this nation is not nearly as richly endowed
with wind energy as, say, China or the United States, the Great
Indian Desert in the northwest offers a huge opportunity for
building solar thermal power plants. Hundreds of plants in the
desert could satisfy most of India’s electricity needs. And
because it is such a compact country, the distance for building
Stabilizing Climate: Shifting to Renewable Energy
121
agoal of 3,000 megawatts by 2017. New Jersey has a goal of
2,300 megawatts of solar installations by 2021, and Maryland is
aiming for 1,500 megawatts by 2022.42
With installations of solar PV now doubling every two years
and likely to continue doing so at least until 2020, annual instal-
lations, at nearly 5,600 megawatts in 2008, will climb to 500,000
megawatts in 2020. By this time the cumulative installed capac-
ity would exceed 1.5 million megawatts (1,500 gigawatts).
Although this may seem overly ambitious, it could in fact turn
out to be a conservative goal. For one thing, if most of the near-
ly 1.6 billion people who lack electricity today get it by 2020, it
will likely be because they have installed home solar systems.
43
Asecond, very promising way to harness solar energy on a
massive scale is simply to use reflectors to concentrate sunlight
on a closed vessel containing water or some other liquid, heat-
ing the liquid to produce steam that drives a turbine. This solar
thermal technology, often referred to as concentrating solar
power (CSP), first came on the scene with the construction of a
350-megawatt solar thermal power plant complex in California.
Completed in 1991, it remained the world’s only utility-scale
solar thermal generating facility until the completion of a 64-
megawatt power plant in Nevada in 2007. As of early 2009, the
United States has 6,100 megawatts of solar thermal power
plants under development, all with signed long-term power pur-
chase agreements.44
In mid-2009 Lockheed Martin, an aerospace defense and
information technology contractor, announced that it was
building a 290-megawatt CSP plant in Arizona. This plant, like
many other CSP plants, will have six hours of storage, enabling
it to generate electricity until midnight or beyond. The entry
into the solar field of a company with annual sales of $43 bil-
lion and vast engineering skills signals a major new commit-
ment to harnessing the earth’s abundance of solar energy.45
As noted earlier, the government of Algeria plans to produce
6,000 megawatts of solar thermal electrical capacity for trans-
mission to Europe via undersea cable. The German government
was quick to respond to the Algerian initiative. The plan is to
build a 1,900-mile high-voltage transmission line from Adrar
deep in the Algerian desert to Aachen, a town on Germany’s
border with the Netherlands.46
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PLAN B 4.0
Documents you may be interested
Documents you may be interested
