48
3
Chapter 1: Introduction
the government agenda and what factors led to its ultimate demise. John Kingdon’s
Policy Streams Model describes how problems come to the attention of policy makers,
how agendas are set, how policy alternatives are generated, and why policy windows
open.
3
This theory will be utilized to develop the story of SEI’s rise and fall, and will
more specifically be used to assess who the important actors are within the space
policy community. Frank Baumgartner and Bryan Jones’s Punctuated Equilibrium
Model depicts the policy process as comprising long periods of stability, which are
interrupted by predictable periods of instability that lead to major policy changes.
4
This model will be utilized to provide a better understanding of the larger trends
that led to SEI’s promotion to the government agenda and may explain its eventual
downfall.
5
These two models contributed a number of descriptive statistics that
were used to develop a collection of lessons learned from the SEI experience.
In 1972, Michael Cohen, James March, and Johan Olsen introduced Garbage
Can Theory in an article describing what they called “organized anarchies.” The
authors emphasized the chaotic character of organizations as loose collections of
ideas as opposed to rational, coherent structures. They found that each, organized
anarchy was composed of four separate process streams: problems, solutions, partici-
pants, and choice opportunities. They concluded that organizations are “a collection
of choices looking for problems, issues and feelings looking for decision situations in
which they might be aired, solutions looking for issues to which they might be the
answer, and decision makers looking for work.” Finally, a choice opportunity was:
…a garbage can into which various kinds of problems and solutions
are dumped by participants as they are generated. The mix of garbage in
a single can depends on the mix of cans available, on the labels attached to
the alternative cans, on what garbage is currently being produced, and on
the speed with which garbage is collected and removed from the scene.
Therefore, the three found that policy outcomes are the result of the garbage avail-
able and the process chosen to sift through that garbage.
6
3
John W. Kingdon, Agendas, Alternatives, and Public Policies (New York: HarperCollins College
Publishers, 1995).
4
Frank R. Baumgartner and Bryan D. Jones, Agendas and Instability in American Politics (Chicago:
University of Chicago Press, 1993), pp. 3-24.
5
Wayne Parsons, Public Policy: An Introduction to the 周eory and Practice of Policy Analysis
(Brookfield, Vermont: Edward Elgar Publishing, 1995), pp. 193-207.
6
Michael Cohen, James March, and Johan Olsen, “A Garbage Can Model of Organizational
Choice,” Administrative Science Quarterly (March 1972), pp. 1-25; Parsons, Public Policy, pp. 192-193.
43
5
Chapter 1: Introduction
do issues rise to the top of the government agenda to be dealt with independently.
At a fundamental level, the punctuated equilibrium model seeks to explain why the
policy process is largely incremental and conservative, but is also subject to periods
of radical change.
8
Baumgartner and Jones argue that to understand the complexities of the policy
making process, one must study specific policy problems over extended periods of
time. To comprehend the policy dynamics of an issue, one must develop indicators
that explain how the issue is understood. They introduce a new approach to policy
research that attempts to meld the policy typology literature and the agenda status
literature—the former based on cross-sectional comparisons of multiple public
policy issues, the latter focused on longitudinal studies of a single issue over time.
The new approach concentrates on the long-term trends related to interest in, and
discussion of, important policy questions. In particular, they are interested in two
related concepts, whether an issue is on the agenda of a given institution (venue
access) and whether the tone of activity within that institution is positive or nega-
tive (policy image).
9
The two utilize an eclectic group of measures to gauge venue
access and policy image. Baumgartner and Jones’s model provided a useful method
for understanding where SEI fits within the history of the American space program.
More importantly, it provided a means to evaluate whether long-term space policy
trends predetermined the initiative’s failed outcome.
Why Mars?
Any discussion of human exploration of Mars must begin with a description
of the reasons why this planetary destination has continually reemerged during
the post-Apollo period as the “next logical step” for the American space program.
Understanding the deep-rooted human interest in Mars provides some insight into
the space program’s recurring focus on it as an objective for both robotic and human
missions. Crewed Mars exploration has been seriously considered three times during
the past 35 years, but our fascination with the red planet began a great deal earlier.
For thousands of years, the human race has been drawn to Mars—our celestial
neighbor fuels the imagination unlike any other planet in the solar system. Ancient
humans examined the red planet as they attempted to unlock the mystery of the
heavens. To primitive humans, the fourth planet from the sun was nothing more
then a reddish point of light dancing across the night sky. Early civilizations gave
8
Frank R. Baumgartner and Bryan D. Jones, Agendas and Instability in American Politics (Chicago:
University of Chicago Press, 1993), pp. 3-24.
9
Ibid., pp. 39-55.
47
7
Chapter 1: Introduction
motion—stating that planetary orbits about the Sun were elliptical (as opposed
to circular as Aristarchus and Copernicus had assumed) and that a planet’s speed
increases as it approaches the sun and decreases proportionally as it moves farther
away. As a result of Tycho and Kepler’s observations and theories, the heliocentric
system finally overcame Ptolemy’s geocentric model.
12
In 1609, the same year that Kepler published On the Motion of Mars, Galileo
Galilei made the first celestial observations with a telescope. The next year, after
making observations of the Moon, Jupiter, and Venus, Galileo turned his telescope
toward Mars. Due to the use of a relatively crude instrument, Galileo’s observations
of Mars where not particularly informative—other than to suggest that the planet
was not a perfect sphere. In 1659, Dutch astronomer Christian Huygens, using a
considerably more advanced telescope, was able to detect the first surface feature on
Mars. The dark triangular area that he observed over a period of months, which is
today called Syrtis Major, allowed him to conclude that Mars rotated on its axis like
the Earth. Seven years later, in 1666, Italian astronomer Giovanni Cassini began a
series of observations and discovered the planet’s white polar caps.
13
In 1783, astronomer William Herschel, who two years earlier had discovered
the planet Uranus, made a series of observations of Mars and found that the planet
was tilted at an angle of almost 24 degrees on its axis of rotation. This finding
showed that like Earth, Mars had seasons; however, considering that a Martian year
is almost double that of Earth, its seasons are nearly twice as long. Herschel also
confirmed the existence of Mars’s polar caps, and postulated correctly that they were
composed of ice. Finally, Herschel found that the planet had “a considerable but
moderate atmosphere.”
14
Canals on Mars
In 1877, Mars came to a perihelic opposition just 35 million miles from Earth.
That year Asaph Hall, director of the U.S. Naval Observatory, turned that institu-
tion’s 26-inch refractor telescope toward the red planet in search of satellites. In
August, he discovered two small moons orbiting Mars, which he named Phobos
(fear) and Deimos (flight)—these were Mars’ attendants in Homer’s Iliad. Hall con-
tinued his observations for several months, using the data he acquired to make an
estimate of the mass of Mars. His calculation of 0.1076 times that of Earth proved
to be quite accurate (the current accepted value being 0.1074).
15
12
Ibid.
13
Sheehan, 周e Planet Mars, pp. 9-15; Wilford, Mars Beckons, pp. 3-17.
14
Sheehan, 周e Planet Mars, pp. 16-22; Wilford, Mars Beckons, pp. 3-17.
15
Sheehan, 周e Planet Mars, pp. 23-30.
44
9
Chapter 1: Introduction
of his canals are but they are not straight lines at all.” It is now believed that Lowell’s
canals were simply optical illusions produced because the human eye attempts to
arrange scattered spots into a line. Despite the eventual erosion of his theories, how-
ever, there is little doubt that Lowell’s declarations about extraterrestrial Martian life
led to greatly increased public interest in the red planet.
19
Mars in Popular Culture
In 1898, just three years after Percival Lowell popularized the vision of a Mars
threaded by canals and peopled by ancient beings, the first great Martian science
fiction book was published. The War of the Worlds, written by H.G. Wells, is hailed
as the greatest alien invasion story in history. The book began with a Martian assault
just outside of London. While the Martians at first seemed helpless in the heavy
Earth gravity, they quickly exposed their advanced technology in the form of huge
death machines that began destroying the surrounding countryside, forcing the
evacuation of London. The saving grace for the badly overmatched humans turned
out to be common bacteria that the Martians had no immune system to fight off.
In 1938, the book was famously adapted for radio by Orson Welles. The retelling of
the story, portrayed as a news program about a Martian landing in rural New Jersey,
was so believable that millions of Americans actually thought that Earth was being
invaded.
20
Starting in 1917, author Edgar Rice Burroughs began a highly popular series
about Mars exploration with the publication of A Princess of Mars. In subsequent
years, he wrote ten more books tracking the adventures of Captain John Carter on
Mars. The series was first published as a longer sequence of serials printed in All-
Story Magazine, which represented a common strategy for the publication of science
fiction novels during that period. The Carter books were considered to be more
fantasy than hard science fiction, which was exhibited by the lack of detail regard-
ing how Carter actually got to the red planet—he was magically taken there in the
book.
21
During the Great Depression and the Second World War, there was a conspic-
uous absence of popular books regarding Mars exploration. The lull was broken
when author Robert Heinlein wrote Red Planet. Published in 1949, the book fol-
lowed teenager Jim Marlowe, his friend Frank, and his Martian “roundhead” pet
Willis on their travels across the planet to warn a human colony that was the target
19
Ibid.
20
H.G. Wells, War of the Worlds (1898; reprint, New York: Tor, 1986).
21
Edgar Rice Burroughs, A Princess of Mars (1917; reprint, New York: Ballantine Books, 1990).
53
11
Chapter 1: Introduction
Mariner and Viking
While there was substantial progress made in telescope technology during the
70 years after Lowell’s sensational observations, it was still beyond the abilities of
astronomers of the time to unequivocally disprove his theories. In fact, during this
period there was little sustained interest in planetary astronomy, and as a result, few
new discoveries were made. In 1957, the Soviet launch of Sputnik opened vast new
opportunities for scientific investigations. Once the concept of robotic planetary
exploration was conceived during the coming years, it was taken for granted that
missions to Mars would be a priority. Several failed attempts by both the Americans
and Soviets to send spacecraft to Mars during the early 1960s, however, delayed the
first close up examination of the red planet.
26
On 28 December 1964, NASA launched Mariner 4 on a mission to explore
Mars. About halfway to the planet, the spacecraft experienced technical difficulties
that greatly concerned ground controllers. The “Great Galactic Ghoul,”
27
however,
was unsuccessful in its efforts at crippling the probe. On 14 July 1965, Mariner 4
made a flyby to within 6,118 miles of the planet’s surface. It was able to relay 22
images back to Earth with its single camera before passing out of range. The data
that was obtained from those images, as well as from the spacecraft’s other instru-
ments,
28
were nothing less than stunning. Instead of the living planet that Lowell
had envisioned, Mariner 4 discovered a surface that was apparently devoid of life
and seemingly unchanged for billions of years. In addition, results of an S-band
radio occultation experiment found that the Martian atmospheric density was con-
siderably lower than expected and that its makeup was approximately 95% carbon
dioxide. Finally, it was discovered that the planet had no discernible magnetic field.
The information returned by Mariner 4 resulted in a complete revision of human
thinking about Mars, ending forever Lowellian theories regarding vegetation and
intelligent beings.
29
During the early months of 1969, the Americans and the Soviets each sent two
more spacecraft towards Mars.
30
While the Soviets continued their string of failures,
both Mariner 6 and Mariner 7 were successful. These spacecraft, like Mariner 4,
were designed as flyby missions, but they were capable of photographing the planet
26
Wilford, Mars Beckons, pp. 53-56.
27
A myth developed by flight engineers after earlier missions to Mars failed, which lives on today.
28
Including a magnetometer and a trapped-radiation detector.
29
Sheehan, 周e Planet Mars, chapter 11.
30
About every 26 months, Mars and Earth reach a position in their respective orbits that offers the
best trajectory between the two planets. During this time period, the Mariner missions were launched
to take advantage of these launch windows.
Documents you may be interested
Documents you may be interested
